The pro-independence campaign group Believe in Scotland has released an important new poll. The group asked an additional question in the recent Norstat poll published in the Sunday Times which showed support for independence at an impressive 54%. The Times poll asked the question, Should Scotland be an independent country? This question produced the result of 54% for yes which was widely reported last week. Believe in Scotland asked an additional question, Should Scotland be an independent republic? This question produced the amazing result of 59% for yes. That is the highest result for yes in any poll since the 2014 independence referendum. Independence is MORE popular if people understand that it would bring about meaningful change.
There’s clearly a hitherto unaddressed segment of the Scottish population which is sympathetic to independence but which isn’t motivated to vote yes if they believe that independence would merely result in the same inequality and royalist sycophancy which we get now. A commitment to a Scottish republic is a commitment to real and meaningful change as well as marking a hugely important symbolic break from the injustices of the British state.
I have always been in favour of a Scottish republic, The Republic of Scotland / Poblachd na h-Alba has a nice ring to it. Independence has to mean something, and a commitment to a republic demonstrates conclusively that an independent Scotland represents a fresh start, a start in which the sovereignty of the people of Scotland is front and foremost. However I was concerned that by centering republicanism in the independence campaign we might alienate those who retain a lingering affection for the monarchy, after all Scotland was a kingdom throughout its thousand year long history as an independent state. This poll proves that those fears were not only mistaken, but by not basing our campaign for independence in a demand for an independent Scottish republic we are actually alienating those who want real and significant change in an independent Scotland.
This poll also proves that the pro-independence parties have nothing to lose and much to gain by being radical.
Theoretically, the question of independence and the question of how an independent Scotland chooses its head of state ought to be quite distinct and different. But we cannot pretend that they are unrelated. Scotland would not automatically and by default become a republic upon becoming independent. The generally accepted default position is that upon becoming independent Scotland would retain the current – and deeply unpopular – monarch as head of state in the same way that Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and many other Commonwealth countries do. However that’s not necessarily the path Scotland has to follow, India became a republic upon achieving independence in 1947. Scotland could do so too, or it could commit to holding a referendum on a republic within a few months of becoming independent, possibly alongside the referendum which will be necessary to grant democratic legitimacy to the new Scottish constitution.
It’s often forgotten that Ireland did not become a republic immediately. The independent Irish Free State which existed from independence in 1922 retained the monarch as a symbolic head of state. The Treaty of independence established that the new state would be a constitutional monarchy, with the Governor-General of the Irish Free State as representative of the Crown. until the monarch was replaced by an elected president in the constitution adopted in 1937. The state retained a tenuous and ill-defined connection to the British Empire until the Republic of Ireland Act was passed by the Oireachtas in 1948 officially defining the state as a republic.
Personally, I am excited by the idea of an independent republic of Scotland in a way I am not by an independent Scotland that still kow-tows, even nominally, to Charles and the rest of that hideous abuser protecting bunch of entitled parasites who are foisted upon us by a sycophantic British media at every opportunity.
This is of course just one poll, and the usual caveats apply, but it suggests that the psychologically important milestone of 60% for yes is well within our grasp. Indeed this poll finds that across all age groups 60% of Scots born in Scotland already support independence. The poll also finds an increase of support for independence amongst English born Scots if they are offered a republic. Support for independence amongst this cohort leaps an incredible 8% to 47% if a republic is on the table, opening up the exciting possibility that even a majority of those born in England can be persuaded to vote yes if the offer is right.
Believe in Scotland say: “Let’s spell it out – an independent Scotland being a republic not only takes independence support from 54% to 59%, it increases support for independence in every age group, gender, political party support, social class and place of birth category.”
The received wisdom has always led us to defer the question of a republic until after independence has been won. This poll strongly suggests that is a mistake. This poll also suggests that the pro-independence parties need to be bold and radical. That boldness and radicalism must go further than campaigning for a Scottish republic, it must also extend to how Scotland brings about a democratic vote for independence without hoping for Westminster to concede to one. Independence means you don’t wait to be given permission.
Independence is in itself a bold and radical proposition, the pro-independence parties need to lean into that, not try and strike a note of caution by promising to keep the monarchy or the pound. Independence represents the real change that so many people in Scotland are crying out for, the change that Keir Starmer promised but which he never had any intention of delivering. The broader independence movement and pro-independence parties must start work on formulating a draft constitution for a Scotland which is a republic and which has no constitutional role for the monarchy.
Crucially this poll was weighted according to the result of the 2014 referendum and as I and others have argued, over ten years out from that ballot this practice is likely to have the effect of artificially boosting support for No. Scotland is quite plausibly already a country in which more than 60% would vote in favour of an independent republic.
You can read more about the poll here:
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