On Monday there was a historic meeting in Cardiff, the first time ever that pro-independence First Ministers from Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland met and agreed a common framework for the pursuit of self-determination for their respective nations. The meeting was a sharp rebuke to UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, telling him that self-determination can never be “off the table” that the constitutional futures of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland will not be held hostage to the political whims of a British Prime Minister and will certainly not be vetoed by a man whose political mandate derives from a victory in an English Westminster by-election.
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill and Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald appeared alongside John Swinney and Rhun ap Iowerth at a press conference in Cardiff on Monday, where they jointly declared that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end.”
The British state now faces a three pronged concerted push for clarity on the path to independence or reunification referendums from Edinburgh, Cardiff, and Belfast, making it much more difficult for Burnham to continue to pretend that there’s no issue around exactly how the Celtic nations exercise their right to self-determination in this supposedly United Kingdom. However the Agreement goes beyond this and also sets out plans for Scotland and Wales to reject what it calls Whitehall’s broken economic model and to share ideas on economic growth and the expansion of energy resources.
The three first ministers are not wrong, Westminster has indulged conservative fiscal policy to the point of self-sabotage and has forced Brexit on Scotland and Northern Ireland even though both voted against it. Unlike the case with Northern Ireland, Scotland was given no Brexit concessions at all, despite over 62% voting against it in Scotland and with a pro-remain majority in every Scottish local authority area. The refusal of Westminster to concede any Brexit concessions to Scotland was all the more galling as the promise that a No vote in the 2014 independence referendum was the only way to guarantee Scotland’s membership of the EU was a key part of Better Together’s pitch to the electorate.
Westminster then rubbed salt in the wound by using the Brexit Scotland voted against as an excuse to break another of Better Together’s promises and to sideline and by-pass Holyrood by intervening directly in Scotland on devolved matters.
All this was politically easier for Westminster as it was able to pick off an isolated Holyrood and attack it in isolation. Now with the three devolved governments all in agreement that they want more powers are are all dissatisfied with the Westminster model, any attack by Westminster on the powers of one devolved parliament will provoke a united response from all three.
Northern Ireland already has a route to a unification referendum specified in the Good Friday Agreement, the Six Counties also have a power sharing arrangement which ensures that if there is a Republican first minister there must be a Loyalist deputy first minister. There is also recognition that the three are at different stages in their political struggles for self-determination. Sinn Féin seeks a unification referendum for Northern Ireland by 2030. Scotland, where recent polling suggests that there is already a majority in favour of independence, would like an independence referendum as soon as possible and certainly before the next Holyrood elections in 2031. Meanwhile Plaid Cymru does not currently seek a definitive timetable for an independence referendum as the party is cognisant that there is still much work to be done to build the case for Welsh independence, with public opinion on independence in Wales being approximately at the level of support for independence in Scotland some 15 to twenty years ago.
With these differences in mind, although all three first ministers have pledged to cooperate and work towards their common goals, the formal agreement has been signed only by John Swinney on behalf of the Scottish Government and Rhun ap Iorwerth on behalf of the Welsh Government.
The meeting and subsequent Cardiff Agreement represent an important milestone on the path to the end of Westminster rule in the three Celtic nations of the UK and heralds the beginning of a new era of cooperation between the three.
A lot of politics is about theatre and the creation of narratives, what the three first ministers achieved today was a powerful statement of intent and an open challenge to Andy Burnham who will meet with all three in a few weeks time, they have collectively informed him in no uncertain terms that he does not get to decide what is “off the table” when it comes to the right of the peoples of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland to decide their constitutional futures for themselves.
You can tell that the usual anti-independence suspects are rattled by the meeting. The deeply unpleasant Alan Cochrane, who is apparently still a thing, fulminated in The Telegraph that in Cardiff “a sinister cabal is plotting nothing less than the end of the United Kingdom.” He’s unwittingly created a great name for a band: “Welcome to the stage, Sinister Cabal, performing their hit single The end of the United Kingdom.” ,
With much hand-wringing, Cochrane blames devolution for fostering what he insists in his Westminster-centric way on calling “separatism.” What Cochrane does not and cannot address is why so many people in the non-English parts of the UK are so scunnered with the Westminster system that they’d prefer independence or union with the rest of the island of Ireland. People like Cochrane are incapable of formulating an intellectually coherent answer to that question because to do so means admitting to the deceit and failures of successive Westminster governments, above all the corrupt and chaotic Conservative governments of which Cochrane has been such an enthusiastic advocate.
We are in new territory now. Independence for Scotland and Wales and the unification of Ireland are firmly on the political agenda. Westminster’s stalling tactic of refusing to engage with the issue has run out of road.
You can read the full text of the Cardiff Agreement here:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/cardiff-agreement-cytundeb-caerdydd-agreement-between-welsh-and-scottish-government/
After wrestling for hours with PayPal, I have finally compiled a list of the emails of almost everyone who makes a regular monthly donation to the blog and will soon launch the weekly bonus premium email article for those who make a monthly contribution to the blog. I had hoped to launch this in June but unfortunately it will be delayed for a while. There are a number of people whose emails I am unable to find. Some people donate monthly by Ko-Fi, one makes a monthly donation to last year’s GoFundMe fundraiser, a few people make monthly payments directly by bank transfer. I cannot access the email addresses of any of these people and so cannot add them to the new mailing list. If you are one of these folk, please email me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com and I’ll add you to the mailing list.
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