Andy Burnham has replied to John Swinney after the latter wrote to him asking for a meeting to put the process for triggering a Scottish independence referendum on a legal basis after Burnham replied to a question from SNP MP Chris Law at PMQs on Wednesday asking him about that process detailed in the Good Friday Agreement for triggering a border poll in Northern Ireland and pointing out the lack of fairness that there is no equivalent process for Scotland. Burnham had previously asserted that a unification referendum for Northern Ireland was off the table, a line he has also used with respect to a Scottish independence referendum.
Burnham’s reply went as follows: “He mentions the Good Friday Agreement, and I will stick to it 100%. And I would also remind him on that question of a border poll, it is to be considered by the Northern Ireland Secretary when there is a clear consensus in the country, when public opinion has changed to the point where the call has to be considered. I would say exactly the same situation in Scotland.”
Burnham added: “I am not aware that there is a majority of public support for another referendum, and until that changes, Mr Speaker, there won’t be one.”
In his reply to John Swinney the screeching of a Westminster U-turn can be heard all the way from London. Burnham replaced Starmer but is more than happy to continue with Starmer’s intelligence insulting practice of pretending that he did not say what we all heard him say and that if he did say it, it did not mean what the words he uttered normally mean.
In his letter of reply to the First Minister Burnham is now claiming that he was only highlighting “there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland”
It’s one thing for a politician to admit to a misstep, it’s something else entirely to be gaslighted so blatantly. In his letter to the First Minister there was also another example of the rewriting of history to suit the Westminster agenda. Burnham wrote:
“Unlike the situation today, ahead of 2014 such a consensus did exist across both the Scottish Parliament and the UK Parliament, across all political parties and across civic society. In that referendum the people of Scotland made clear their continued commitment to Scotland remaining part of the UK.”
This is a flat out lie.
There was no consensus in Scotland about an independence referendum prior to the 2014 referendum and to assert there was is disingenuous nonsense. Support for independence was running at about 30% at the time while the Labour and Conservative parties, both in Scotland and in Westminster were vehement in their opposition to an independence referendum. The referendum only took place, not because of a consensus “across all political parties and across civic society” but because the then Prime Minister David Cameron was persuaded that supporters for independence would win only around 30% or less in a Scottish independence referendum and such a result would effectively kill off Scottish independence as a political force and neuter Alex Salmond and the SNP.
A consensus had bugger all to do with it. The only consensus which existed at the time was the widespread belief that if the independence parties secured a majority in Holyrood that would constitute a mandate for an independence referendum. The SNP won that majority in 2011, much to the shock and horror of the Labour and Conservative parties. The Westminster parties did not believe it was possible for the SNP to win a majority when the devolved parliament was established. That consensus has since broken down purely because of the refusal of the Westminster parties to accept the outcome of Holyrood elections.
It’s worth pointing out that the SNP won its 2011 majority with 45.4% of the constituency vote and 44.0% of the list vote. Turn out was only 50.5%. The SNP did not win a majority of votes cast and did not come close to securing the backing of a majority of the electorate. In fact less than a quarter of the electorate voted SNP in the Scottish election which led to an independence referendum. But at the time all this – correctly – was not held to matter as the 2011 vote was a parliamentary election not a referendum and in a parliamentary election the only criterion for assessing victory or whether a party has won a mandate is by the number of seats won.
It’s only since 2011 that the Westminster parties have started to apply the rules of referendums to the very different democratic exercise that is a parliamentary election. You don’t need to be a genius to work out that this is because the Westminster parties have not been able to win a Scottish Parliament election since 2011 and are shifting the goalposts in a desperate attempt to fend off a second independence referendum, a referendum which they know as we do that they would lose.
Burnham’s letter represents another attempt to shift the goalposts with its talk of a consensus which never existed.
What’s really going on here is that Burnham did not appreciate the significance of what he said at PMQs and is now performing a desperate reverse ferret in an attempt to get himself out of a political difficulty of his own making. His problem is that we all heard him say what he said, the meaning of the words he uttered was perfectly clear and he cannot take them back now if he hopes to retain an iota of credibility. He’s just told us that he is as slippery and dishonest as the man he replaced because he was slippery and dishonest and in the process has signed the death warrant for the Labour party in Scotland and with it any longer to medium term hopes of keeping the United Kingdom together.
Whether Burnham likes it or not – spoiler alert he hates it – Burnham’s political naivety has unleashed the independence genie from the bottle and it cannot be put back in. If majority support is sufficient to trigger a border poll in Northern Ireland then it must also be enough to trigger independence referendums in Scotland or Wales. If a border poll in Northern Ireland cannot be held within seven years of the last poll, as specified in the Good Friday Agreement, then the necessary time since the 2014 referendum has already passed and arguments about a “generation” are irrelevant. Burnham has unleashed all this and proven himself to be an untrustworthy liar like Starmer before him, all in his first week in office since the Commons returned after the summer recess.
After all this blogging – two posts in one day – I’m taking a couple of days off as it’s my birthday. Back next week.
After wrestling for hours with PayPal, I have finally compiled a list of the emails of almost everyone who makes a regular monthly donation to the blog and will soon launch the weekly bonus premium email article for those who make a monthly contribution to the blog. I had hoped to launch this in June but unfortunately it will be delayed for a while. There are a number of people whose emails I am unable to find. Some people donate monthly by Ko-Fi, one makes a monthly donation to last year’s GoFundMe fundraiser, a few people make monthly payments directly by bank transfer. I cannot access the email addresses of any of these people and so cannot add them to the new mailing list. If you are one of these folk, please email me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com and I’ll add you to the mailing list.
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