In PMQs on Wednesday, Andy Burnham was asked by SNP MP Chris Law about the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and the trigger for an Irish unification referendum, and after Burnham stated that he was aware of every word in the Good Friday Agreement, Law asked: “So he [Burnham] will therefore know that the Northern Ireland Act contains a provision for a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom, but no equivalent provision exists within the law for Scotland, ” continuing, “Does the Prime Minister recognise the people of Scotland have the same right, the equal right to choose their own future, and that the conditions for a second independence referendum should be set out in law?”
When Starmer was asked similar questions his typical response was to ignore the question entirely then to launch into an unrelated attack on the Scottish Government. Burnham’s reaction was interestingly different.
Burnham replied: “He mentions the Good Friday Agreement, and I will stick to it 100%.
“And I would also remind him on that question of a border poll, it is to be considered by the Northern Ireland Secretary when there is a clear consensus in the country, when public opinion has changed to the point where the call has to be considered.
“I would say exactly the same situation in Scotland.”
Burnham added: “I am not aware that there is a majority of public support for another referendum, and until that changes, Mr Speaker, there won’t be one.”
Despite what Burnham claimed about being aware of “every word” in the GFA, the treaty does not actually make any mention of a clear consensus being necessary in order to trigger a referendum on Irish reunification. In the context of Northern Ireland it is vanishingly unlikely that there will ever be a consensus on a reunification referendum, the word consensus implies that the nationalist and loyalist communities will both agree on the need for a referendum, that’s never going to happen. What the GFA actually says is that the secretary of state for Northern Ireland must hold a border poll if it appears likely to them that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for Irish unification. That’s a very different proposition from a consensus.
We must not and cannot allow Burnham or any other anti-independence politician to shift the goalposts by insisting on a “consensus” instead of a majority. Despite recent attempts by some in the Labour party in Scotland to rewrite history there was no consensus in Scotland in 2012 in favour of an independence referendum, indeed support for independence in Scotland now is around 20% higher than it was in 2012. Those who oppose an independence referendum now were equally vehement in their opposition in 2012.
Although it makes no mention of a consensus being necessary, there’s a great deal of wriggle room in the GFA for the British Government. It does not specify whether this majority must be in excess of 55% or more or if 50% plus one would suffice, neither does it set out how the existence of this majority is to be determined, whether it’s by opinion polling or by election results. It is silent on how long the majority must have existed prior to a referendum being held. Crucially the GFA does not specify any means by which the Secretary of State can be compelled to hold a referendum if their opinion is at variance with that of the majority of Northern Ireland’s opinion poll findings, elected representatives, and civic bodies.
It is however progress for a British Prime Minister to concede that the conditions for Scotland holding an independence referendum are the same as those for Northern Ireland to hold a referendum on reunification. However what it means is that an independence referendum can only be held when in the subjective opinion of the Secretary of State for Scotland there should be one, although that Secretary of State has a very powerful political motivation for refusing to acknowledge that there’s a majority for independence and there is no Scottish mechanism for overriding their veto. This issue needs to be addressed. The democratic right of the people of Scotland to determine the future of Scotland cannot be subject to a veto from a single individual whether that is the Prime Minister or the Scotland Secretary. If we’re waiting for wee Dougie Alexander to become aware of a majority for independence we’re going to be in for a very long wait. Recent polling already points to the existence of a majority for independence in Scotland. YouGov polls and Scotland in Union’s diddy polls are the only polls which now regularly report a majority against independence.
Note that again, as I pointed out in a previous post, the opponents of independence are conflating two very different things, the wish for independence and the wish for an independence referendum.
The next step for the Scottish Government – and presumably the Welsh Government as well – should be to pin Burnham down on the specifics of how this majority is to be determined and to separate the issue of support for a referendum from support for independence. If this majority is to be decided by opinion polls then these must be polls using the agreed question from 2014, not biased questioning like that employed in Scotland in Union’s dummy spitting polls. There should also be agreement on the methodology of the polling to avoid statistical trickery that can shift the reported result in one direction or another. Above all that means addressing the issue of polling companies continuing to use weighting by the result of the 2014 referendum, a practice which artificially inflates the apparent No response at the expense of Yes. If polls are to play a critical constitutional role then it is imperative that there must be public confidence in their accuracy.
If election results are to be the defining factor then we risk finding ourselves locked into the current position where the electorate keeps electing a Scottish Parliament with a majority for an independence referendum only for that majority to be repeatedly dismissed. The alternative, for Westminster to insist that an absolute majority of the electorate must vote for pro-independence parties effectively sets up a two tier parliamentary mandate which demands that Scotland is held to a much higher standard than Westminster sets for itself.
Note that Burham sidestepped the part of Law’s question about putting the trigger for an independence referendum on a legal footing. Until we have legal clarity all we have are the usual goalposts on wheels which can be shifted again when it is politically expedient.
However what we have had from Burnham is a tacit admission that Westminster’s tactic of refusing to acknowledge the issue of Scottish independence cannot be maintained indefinitely, and that is progress of sorts. He has opened the constitutional door a crack, now the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Plaid Cymru must get into that crack with a crowbar.
After wrestling for hours with PayPal, I have finally compiled a list of the emails of almost everyone who makes a regular monthly donation to the blog and will soon launch the weekly bonus premium email article for those who make a monthly contribution to the blog. I had hoped to launch this in June but unfortunately it will be delayed for a while. There are a number of people whose emails I am unable to find. Some people donate monthly by Ko-Fi, one makes a monthly donation to last year’s GoFundMe fundraiser, a few people make monthly payments directly by bank transfer. I cannot access the email addresses of any of these people and so cannot add them to the new mailing list. If you are one of these folk, please email me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com and I’ll add you to the mailing list.
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