The first crack has appeared in the “We’re not nationalists we’re British” dam against the rising tide of support for independence and the generational shift that puts opposition to independence in Scotland on borrowed time. The current Westminster tactic of refusing to countenance another independence referendum, maintaining that the UK is a voluntary union while avoiding the question of just how Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland can put that to the test was never a long term strategy for dealing with the thorny topic of Celtic self-determination but rather a short term stop gap to be deployed in the hope that the entire issue would just go away.
It has now become clear to many in the anti-independence camp that despite the SNPbad media feeding frenzies which accompanied the Salmond/Sturgeon/Murrell sagas and an unceasing torrent of Scotland is shite stories in the British media in Scotland, support for independence remains undented and with the rise of the far right fracturing support for the anti-independence parties in a way which gives the pro-independence parties a locked-in advantage, Westminster’s just say No stop-gap tactic has run its course.
In an editorial, the Labour supporting Daily Record has urged the UK and Scottish Governments to support a “cross-party commission to examine a trigger point” for an independence referendum.
This change of mind has little to do with a recognition of the democratic imperative to respect the will of the people of Scotland at the ballot box, The Record has been very relaxed about the denial of Scottish democracy by successive British prime ministers. The Record’s apparent change of heart has everything to do with a recognition that the Labour party in Scotland is screwed and will continue to be screwed right up until it can give a clear and straightforward answer to the question about what the democratic path to an independence referendum is exactly.
Burnham’s modest honeymoon bouncette in the polls has not translated into an increase in support for the Scottish branch office. In any event his modest polling honeymoon is over. In Scotland, the accession of either Michael Marra or the other guy to the post of branch manager is not seen, even by Labour stalwarts, as being likely to do anything to plug the holes in Labour’s sinking Scottish ship.
Naturally, The Record has proposed a trigger for a referendum which gives the Labour party the political cover it so desperately needs while putting an almost insurmountable obstacle in the way of the Yes movement and parties. The paper proposes: “A threshold for a referendum should be hard to meet – sustained support for independence of say 60 per cent.”
The Record’s proposal is made in the knowledge that support for independence has never surpassed 60% in opinion polling asking the standard question. The 60% figure was plucked out of the air for precisely that reason.
Tying important constitutional issues to opinion polling give opinion polls a key role to play in constitutional decision making. Such a role cannot be left to the whims of private companies whose business model rests upon securing contracts from overwhelmingly anti-independence newspapers like the British press in Scotland. There must also be confidence that polls used to determine a trigger for independence cannot employ methodological tweaks which skew the result in the favour of one side in the constitutional debate, as with the practice of weighting by the result of the 2014 referendum, which is still used by a number of major polling companies despite – or possibly because – this practice has the effect of artificially boosting the reported No result at the expense of Yes.
A possible solution is that a politically neutral and publicly owned polling company be established with a remit to publish a poll on the standard question on Scottish independence once every two or three months. This would establish an agreed baseline and consistent methodology which would allow the public and politicians to gauge the trajectory of support for independence over time.
What The Record is proposing is that support for independence must exceed a level which it has never hitherto reached in a Scotland whose media environment is overwhelmingly hostile to independence.
In an ideal world the agreement between the Scottish Government and Westminster should include media reform to ensure a level playing field, but since we know that Westminster is coming to this not out of a sense of fair play or concern for the integrity of democracy in Scotland, but rather as a means to continue to stave off independence, media reform and the devolution of broadcasting are never going to happen. Personally I favour a system of government subsidies for the press such as is found in certain Scandinavian countries. This would ensure that the press is broadly reflective of the range of political opinion in the country which it is supposed to serve and that there’s no chance of a media as politically out of line with the public as we suffer in Scotland, where over half the population support a constitutional status which is supported by just one newspaper out of dozens.
The Record is saying that there should only be a second independence referendum when the result is effectively a fait accompli. The Record’s proposal entails that Scotland would continue under Westminster rule indefinitely even if there is a sustained and solid majority for independence of between 51% and 59%. Meanwhile the current anti-independence media onslaught would continue. That is offensive to the principle of democracy. A No majority of 55.3% in 2014 was deemed decisive by the BBC. Since 2014 opponents of independence have continued to insist that 55.3% was sufficient to settle the matter for a generation. The anti-independence parties cannot plausibly assert that 55.3% is not enough as a trigger for another independence referendum. To do so implies that it was not after all enough to settle the question in 2014.
Fairness and logic both dictate that 55.3% support for independence sustained over at least three of the new opinion polls should be sufficient to trigger another independence referendum. What’s sauce for the Westminster goose is also sauce for the independence gander. Scotland needs an agreed trigger for another independence referendum but that must be a trigger designed and implemented in the interests of the people of Scotland, not the interests of the Labour party.
After wrestling for hours with PayPal, I have finally compiled a list of the emails of almost everyone who makes a regular monthly donation to the blog and will soon launch the weekly bonus premium email article for those who make a monthly contribution to the blog. I had hoped to launch this in June but unfortunately it will be delayed for a while. There are a number of people whose emails I am unable to find. Some people donate monthly by Ko-Fi, one makes a monthly donation to last year’s GoFundMe fundraiser, a few people make monthly payments directly by bank transfer. I cannot access the email addresses of any of these people and so cannot add them to the new mailing list. If you are one of these folk, please email me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com and I’ll add you to the mailing list.
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