Towards the end of last year I launched a fundraiser in the hope of commissioning a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll on independence around about now, to mark the start of general election year. I’m not able to do it yet, because the fundraiser still has a long distance to travel – and that’s largely my own fault because I wasn’t blogging much before Christmas. However I think now is the time for a big push, because it would be good to get the poll done at some point in January, or at latest in February.
Obviously the thing about any crowdfunded poll is that it’s up to those who might crowdfund it to decide whether the project is actually worthy of the funds. However, one thing I would say is that this general election will be used by the Labour Party in particular to try to kill off independence for many years to come – and yet we’re in the curious situation that independence support seems to be holding up strongly even as Labour rebound. It’s therefore in the interests of Labour and the unionists that there be as few independence polls as possible that remind the public and the media of the fundamental truth that any rejection of the SNP will not be a rejection of independence itself.
The one firm that does poll regularly on independence tends to tuck those results away, to play down the resilience of the Yes vote by making results with Don’t Knows excluded (which really ought to be the headline numbers) very hard to find, and by coupling the main independence question with rather eccentric unionist-oriented supplementaries about whether Alister Jack is correct that there should be sustained 60% Yes support before an independence referendum can be held. A poll commissioned by a pro-indy client like Scot Goes Pop will not be like that – we’ll be much more interested in discovering, for example, whether voters agree it is democratically legitimate for Scotland to use a scheduled election to make a decision on independence, given London’s closing off of the referendum option.
There’s also a window of opportunity here to see if polling can make a telling difference by holding up an unflattering mirror to all pro-independence parties as they arguably make strategic election decisions based on petty partisan interests rather than on the interests of the independence movement or of the nation. I’m not singling out the SNP here, because there’s a strong argument that all of the three largest Yes parties are culpable on this. However it would certainly be of interest to know, for example, the public’s reaction (and more to the point Yes voters’ reaction) to the SNP’s decision to stand directly against the popular sitting pro-indy MP Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles. We can also test opinion on the intention of the Greens and Alba to intervene in numerous SNP-held seats.
We can use the poll to road-test ideas that might stop the Labour juggernaut and see how effective they might be. Would the SNP become a more attractive proposition with a unity Cabinet featuring Kate Forbes as Deputy First Minister? Would a more straightforward commitment to use an election win to negotiate independence help to galvanise Yes support behind the SNP?
If you’d like to help make this poll happen, you can click here to go to the new GoFundMe fundraiser page.
However, the ideal way to donate is directly via Paypal, because the funds are usually transferred instantly and depending on the menu option you select, fees can be completely eliminated. My Paypal email address is jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
You can simply send your donation via Paypal with a note saying “for the poll”.
