First independence poll of 2022 sees Yes draw level in a Savanta ComRes survey for first time since April: does #Partygate mean #PartyOver for #OurPreciousUnion?

The final independence poll of last year – which was also the first since the ongoing story of the Downing Street parties broke – presented us with an enigma. It showed Yes on 50%, which was higher than in any online poll for months, but it was also conducted by a firm (Opinium) that had been tending to show markedly better results for Yes than other firms.  So was 50% just an Opinium house effect, or was it the first indication that #Partygate was having an impact on the constitutional state of play?  Today’s first poll of 2022 gives some support to the latter interpretation, because it shows Yes on 50% – but this time it was conducted by a firm that has been particularly favourable for No over the last year or so.

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