Although the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll is predominantly about GRA reform and related matters, I also added voting intention questions, and three supplementary questions on political matters – two of which you’ve already seen, and which produced astonishingly good results from the point of view of the pro-independence movement. The third question is a little different, because it’s produced a good, solid result, but not on the same dramatic scale of the other two. It may be worth pondering why that’s the case.
Do you think the recent shortages of goods and petrol strengthen or weaken the case for Scotland to become an independent country and to then seek to restore freedom of movement with the countries of the European Union?
Strengthen the case: 35%
Weaken the case: 22%
Make no difference: 32%
That’s a roughly 3-2 margin for ‘strengthen’ over ‘weaken’, and importantly a bigger percentage of No voters from 2014 say ‘strengthen’ (16%) than Yes voters who say ‘weaken’ (9%). There’s also a 34% to 16% lead for ‘strengthen’ among those who didn’t vote in 2014. That suggests the shortages may be shifting the dial to at least a modest extent, or will have the potential to do so.
It may seem odd that 22% of respondents hold the apparently perverse belief that the shortages have somehow weakened the case for independence and freedom of movement, but there are a couple of possible explanations for that. Firstly, the BBC have been utterly determined to ensure that it occurs to as few people as possible that Brexit may actually be to blame for the difficulties the UK has been facing recently. The supply problems have been presented as having multi-faceted causes which are difficult to pin down, and of course some people are all too eager to believe that we need London’s “broad shoulders” to protect helpless Scotland from complex, multi-faceted problems. But probably a bigger factor is that some people are extremely partisan in their constitutional preferences and would just automatically say that any political event, no matter what it is, has weakened the case for independence. Boris Johnson resuming atmospheric nuclear testing in Prestonpans town centre? Oh, that just means we need London rule even more, of course it does. The fact that No voters from 2014 say, by a 34% to 16% margin, that the shortages weaken the case for the restoration of freedom of movement in an independent Scotland…well, it’s possible they may truly believe that deep down, but ah hae ma doots.
So for that reason, I’d suggest the people who chose the ‘weaken’ option are of less concern than the roughly one-third of the sample, including 43% of No voters from 2014 and even 23% of Yes voters, who think the shortages make no difference to the case for independence. Those people presumably mean what they say – but why? We can blame the BBC, but I think the SNP may need to consider whether they’ve been doing enough to join the dots in people’s minds about the effect of Brexit on daily life, and how independence can resolve many of the problems. It could be that pushing the date of the independence referendum ever backwards has led the SNP to soft-pedal a little on the impact of Brexit – ie. if they presented our departure from the EU as an immediate and ongoing crisis, they know that people would be asking them why they aren’t seeking a solution with considerably more urgency.
SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I hope you’ll bear with me as I continue to heavily promote the new fundraiser, but as I’ve explained a few times, the crowdfunding for this current poll did not meet the full amount required, and I’m having to cover the shortfall with my own money. So running any future Scot Goes Pop polling – on independence or other Scottish political issues – will be pretty much impossible unless we reach the £6500 target figure, or at least get very close to it. At present we’re more than 40% of the way towards the target, so a million thanks to everyone who has made donations so far. I know times are really tough at the moment, but as I noted the other day, thousands of people read Scot Goes Pop every week, and if just 10% of those people were to donate just £10, the target figure would be reached straight away. Of course some people can’t donate for very good reasons, but one really helpful thing you can do is to share the fundraiser page and spread the word with your friends and family.
