YouGov average suggests SNP would make big gains – and win 93% of Scottish seats – in a new Westminster election

We’re getting closer to the publication of the new full-scale Scot Goes Pop poll – I was given advance sight of some preliminary numbers this morning, and it’s possible I may be able to release the first set of results tomorrow or Wednesday.  However, I haven’t seen the voting intention numbers yet, which will be interesting, because unless another poll appears over the next 24-48 hours, it’ll be the first full-scale Scottish voting intention poll for a good few weeks.  To whet your appetite, here is the next best thing – an average of the Scottish subsamples from the last four GB-wide YouGov polls.  YouGov, unlike other firms, appear to structure and weight their Scottish subsamples separately, so an average over time should produce figures at least in the same ball-park as a full-scale Scottish poll.

So this is basically good news – the SNP’s lead isn’t quite as mind-bogglingly massive as it’s been at certain times during the pandemic, but nevertheless there still appears to have been a clear swing from Tory to SNP since the December 2019 general election.  Although the effect on seats seems exaggerated given that the swing is a relatively modest 2%, it’s worth noting that the new constituency map is actually working against the SNP on these numbers – based on the current boundaries they’d be grabbing an additional two seats, and would be essentially back to where they were in the 2015 super-landslide.

Labour, meanwhile, are actually slightly down on their historic low under Jeremy Corbyn at the 2019 election.  Luckily for us, they’ll remain firmly in denial about their predicament and will continue to tell themselves that it’s the voters who need to change, not Labour.

Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser update (as of 2.30pm on Monday): £1086 raised out of £6500 target figure (17% funded).  The Scot Goes Pop poll you’ll be seeing over the coming days is a relatively rare example of a credible full-scale opinion poll commissioned by a pro-independence client, with some questions that unionist parties would probably prefer had never been asked.  If you’d like to see me continue to commission these polls now and again, thus ensuring that it’s not only anti-independence newspapers and pressure groups who frame the questions in the very influential polls that are published, your continued support will be absolutely vital – because polls are very expensive.  So please forgive me as I continue to heavily promote the current fundraiser, which as you can see has only reached 17% of its target so far.  I know from past experience that crowdfunders can very easily grind to a complete halt if a sense of momentum isn’t kept up, and there really is very little point in a half-finished crowdfunder for an opinion poll. So I might publish a dedicated fundraiser blogpost later tonight, before I become too busy with publishing the results of the new poll.  A million thanks to everyone who has donated so far – I really appreciate it.  You can find the fundraiser page HERE, or if you’d rather not donate via GoFundMe, you can find an alternative HERE (scroll down the page after following the link).

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