We at last have our first independence poll since June, and it’s also only the fourth to be conducted since the Holyrood election in early May.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton Strategies)
Yes 48%
No 52%
Redfield & Wilton are a relatively new pollster, and as far as I can see this is their first ever full-scale Scottish poll on independence. That means there’s nothing to directly compare these numbers to, although they’re pretty much in line with polls from other firms in the late spring and early summer which suggested either a slim No lead or a dead heat. On the plus side, that means there’s been no slippage for Yes, which is perhaps the most we can realistically hope for while the Scottish Government continue to shy away from campaigning for independence or firing the starting gun for a referendum.
The sample is close to being split down the middle on whether an independence referendum should be held within the next year: 40% are in favour and 47% are opposed. Naturally, most Yes supporters are in favour, which gives the lie to Councillor Hunter’s notorious recent claim that Yessers don’t want an early referendum. Once the time-frame is extended to the next five years, there is clear support across the population for a referendum.
You can still come across the odd zealot on social media who risibly believes that Alba – a party that is largely ignored by the media – is somehow, God knows how, responsible for the fact that we no longer have the outright Yes majority that we enjoyed for so long last year, and even into the start of this year. A supplementary question in the poll provides a somewhat more plausible explanation. Slightly more respondents say that the pandemic has strengthened the arguments in favour of the Union than say it has weakened those arguments. My guess is that the opposite result would have been obtained a year ago, and that it’s the vaccine rollout that has changed the dynamic. But the story of the pandemic is far from over yet, and there’s still the potential for the pendulum of perception to swing once again.
A very significant result is that Keir Starmer’s personal ratings are now well into negative territory. Labour are the only party that can realistically depose the SNP as Scotland’s leading political force, and that simply will not happen for as long as they have such a deeply unpopular leader.
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I’m continuing to fundraise for forthcoming polling via the Scot Goes Pop general fundraiser – please click HERE if you’d like to donate.
