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No, polls do not show “consistent” support for self-ID – indeed the weight of evidence is that there is overwhelming opposition to the principle of self-ID

June 9, 2021

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No, polls do not show “consistent” support for self-ID – indeed the weight of evidence is that there is overwhelming opposition to the principle of self-ID

by qwertyfan
June 9, 2021
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A step forward.

It gives me the chance to ask whether @JamesKelly would be able and willing to critique this selection of public opinion. (I see that it features our old friends SavantaComRes.)https://t.co/3qaiON6m9P

— Alba Loun (@LounAlba) June 9, 2021

I’m not sure there’s much to say about that – if I was an unwitting member of the public and was asked that question, I would say “yes”, and I wouldn’t mean by that answer what Stephen Paton wants me to mean. Most people are unaware of the kitchen sink definition of transphobia.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 9, 2021

The article linked above has plenty more polling data that backs up my point. pic.twitter.com/2YLAn3dnL9

— Stephen Paton ☀️ (@stephenpaton134) June 9, 2021

Oh I see, it’s not actually a poll, it’s just a selective pick-and-mix of individual results that suit you from a variety of different polls. Anyone can play that game – there are plenty enough results out there that could be woven to tell the opposite story.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 9, 2021

It’s been pretty consistent over the past few years that polling data (and for that matter, public consultations) has returned results showing that the majority of women are supportive of trans rights, across polling companies.

— Stephen Paton ☀️ (@stephenpaton134) June 9, 2021

Well, that’s only true if you have a more realistic definition of “trans rights” than I suspect you actually do. On the more kitchen sink definition, there’s no consistency, and as you know there have been polls showing overwhelming majorities in the opposite direction.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 9, 2021

By ‘trans rights’, I mean exactly that. Support for self-id. Support for access to single-sex spaces, etc. Supported by the majority. Repeatedly.

— Stephen Paton ☀️ (@stephenpaton134) June 9, 2021

Well, on that basis your statement is untrue. There’s no consistency in polls on that subject.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 9, 2021

The data would disagree with you on that front.

— Stephen Paton ☀️ (@stephenpaton134) June 9, 2021

Sigh. I don’t begrudge people using the block function because I do it myself, but I defy anyone to read the above thread and say that I was being offensive. I was robust but not rude, and simply stated verifiable facts. Stephen Paton has blocked me as a result.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 9, 2021

Note: Stephen gives preferred pronouns of they/them, so out of basic courtesy (not because of diktat from the thought police) I’m going to do my best to use those, although I do feel the need to explain what I’m doing, because it would otherwise look like a very odd use of vocabulary. I’m also inclined to wonder aloud whether there’s an issue with blocking people on Twitter and still expecting them to use the pronouns you have listed on your Twitter profile.


I suspect the reason Stephen chose that particular moment to block me was because they knew where the conversation was inexorably heading otherwise – they would have asked me to supply proof that the polling evidence was not consistent, and it would have taken me about five seconds to do that.  Here, for example, is a YouGov poll from 2018, with a neutrally-worded question on self-ID commissioned by Pink News (not exactly a hotbed of ‘TERF’-ism).
Do you think a person should or should not have to obtain a doctor’s approval to change their legal gender on official documentation (e.g. birth certificate, passport)? 

Should have to obtain a doctor’s approval: 58% 
Should not have to obtain a doctor’s approval: 18% 
That’s pretty much the end of the discussion right there – the result drives a coach and horses through Stephen’s claim that there is consistent support for self-ID across polls and across polling firms.  Indeed, the result is clear-cut and robust enough to suggest that there is in fact overwhelming opposition to the principle of self-ID.  And contrary to Stephen’s implication, gender makes no difference – the majority among female respondents is actually very slightly bigger than among male respondents.
Elsewhere, there are any number of Panelbase polls commissioned by Wings Over Scotland showing similarly huge opposition to self-ID.  Stephen would doubtless query the wording of those questions, and he might even be justified in doing so – but the snag is that the same problem applies to many of the polls purporting to show support for self-ID.  You might remember a ComRes poll from a few months ago that was leaped on by Mark McGeoghegan (not exactly a neutral analyst on this subject, given that he has “he/him” on his own profile) as absolute proof that Scotland has no truck with ‘transphobia’ – but the wording was just as leading as anything Wings could ever come up with.  It presented self-ID as a minor, tidying-up, administrative exercise, something that no reasonable person could possibly disagree with.
The bottom line is that Stephen is so steeped in this subject that they must be aware of the polling evidence that doesn’t paint a picture that they’re at all comfortable with – so why are they trying to convince people that those polls don’t exist and never existed?  
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