How do voters read the SNP’s motivations?

So just to return briefly to the subject of this morning’s post – whether or not the SNP are primarily motivated by independence or by a desire to stay in power. It’s quite a difficult one to read, because there’s a small, closed group of advisers around Nicola Sturgeon and unless you’re on the inside of that group you’d never know for sure. Indeed, it’s possible they don’t entirely know themselves. I don’t think there’s much doubt that they’re genuinely committed to independence as an ideal, but the impression that’s given is that they’d only want to push for it in practice if they can do so in a reasonably risk-free way, which is not realistic.

But what is the assessment of voters? There’s some interesting data from a pre-election YouGov survey that asked about this very subject. Most people who were planning to vote SNP on the list understandably gave their party the benefit of the doubt – around 63% disagreed (including 28.5% who strongly disagreed) with the notion that the SNP care more about staying in power than about achieving independence. But around 12% did agree, and a more substantial minority of 25% neither agreed nor disagreed. So those are the doubters who the SNP theoretically might risk losing to a more radical pro-indy party if they drag their feet for too long.

Pluralities of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters also think the SNP are genuinely more motivated by independence, and an outright majority of Green voters take the same view. But Tory voters think the SNP are more motivated by staying in power. There’s an obvious paradox there, because the Tory campaign pitch was based around the idea that the SNP are hellbent on indy and that the Tories are the thin blue line that stands in their way. It appears that only the Tories’ own voters don’t actually believe that!

Honoured to get a mention in Wings’ latest “farewell” post (I give it a month).

“most upsettingly of all, it looks like we’ll tragically have to go before we find out from James Kelly what our dastardly masterplan was.”

You weren’t paying attention, Stu, I did that days ago!

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 12, 2021

People will be bemused that Stuart has declared independence is dead less than a week after pro-indy parties won a thumping majority. I have my doubts about the SNP’s strategy too, but he’s not reacting rationally, and I think it’s more about the way he’s been cold-shouldered.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 12, 2021

As for the allegation about Paul Kavanagh, that does not sound like the man I know, and I’m well aware from my own experience that Stuart is not beyond massaging the facts to justify a personal attack. So treat that bit with healthy scepticism.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 12, 2021