As has been widely mentioned (albeit perhaps not on the mainstream media!), the SNP, Greens and Alba took a combined vote share of 50.1% on the regional list ballot, ensuring there is a pro-independence majority in the popular vote on the more important of the two ballots. (And the Conservatives themselves acknowledged it was the more important by banging on endlessly about how much they wanted people’s #PeachVotes.) But that doesn’t in any way mean that 49.9% of the vote went to unionists – there were a large number of fringe parties and independents with a variety of views on independence. So I’ve done some quick calculations…
50.1% pro-independence vote if you only include the SNP, the Greens and Alba
50.3% pro-independence vote if you also include the Scottish Libertarian Party and Scotia Future
50.5% pro-independence vote if you also include independent candidates who are well known to support independence, such as Andy Wightman and Martin Keatings
And that still doesn’t mean 49.5% can be assumed to be the anti-independence figure – for example as far as I can see the Women’s Equality Party don’t have a policy on independence, so have to be treated as neutral. The Scottish Libertarian Party directly confirmed to me on Twitter a couple of weeks ago that they still support independence, which ironically means that votes for Mark Meechan, aka Count Dankula (a former UKIP candidate) can be regarded as pro-indy votes.
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I have an article in The National today about the impact of tactical voting on the regional list seat allocations – you can read it HERE.
