We’re now in the fog of war stage where rumours are starting to circulate, but it’s difficult to know what to take seriously. I’ve heard enough to make me slightly jittery, though, so I went back and refreshed my memory about the opinion polls in the run up to the 2017 general election. Although the polls that year did overestimate both the SNP’s vote share and their lead over the Tories, the degree of error was not all that huge. That’s good news because it means there’d have to be a far bigger polling error for us to end up with a 2017-type result this time. So whatever happens I don’t think it’ll be quite as bad as that. The other thing about 2017 is that it was a pincer movement in which both the Tories and Labour made progress simultaneously – it’s hard to imagine that happening after the results in England overnight.
Thoughts and rumours as the counting starts
I’ve also heard that there may be a high turnout. My theory has been that a low turnout would favour Alba as an individual party, but that a high turnout would be better for the pro-independence parties in combination.
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You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party’s Chris McEleny, HERE.
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