Details of the BMG poll have now been released, and they pretty much tick every box. The SNP are above their 2016 level of support in the constituency ballot, and they’re on course for an overall majority. Pro-indy parties are projected to be winning a huge majority in combination. Alba are above 3% for the first time in a non-Panelbase poll, and are also projected to win seats for the first time in a non-Panelbase poll. And both the Tories and Labour are on course for significant seat losses.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (BMG / Herald):
SNP 49% (+1)
Labour 21% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:
SNP 37% (-5)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Labour 17% (-)
Greens 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Alba 4% (+4)
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 68 (+5), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 18 (-6), Greens 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 7 (+2), Alba 2 (+2)
SNP: 68 seats
All others: 61 seats
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 7 SEATS
Pro-independence parties: 79 seats (61.2%)
Anti-independence parties: 50 seats (38.8%)
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 29 SEATS
The independence numbers are confirmed as Yes 50%, No 50%, which means the little run of six No-majority polls has been well and truly broken. Of the two newest polls, one has Yes ahead and the other has Yes level.
