I mentioned in the previous post that the new Survation poll shows the SNP on course for an overall majority, but I didn’t realise at the time quite how good the figures were. It’s a bit startling to see such a big jump in the SNP vote at a time when the media narrative is about how much the party is supposedly struggling.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:
SNP 50% (+4)
Conservatives 21% (-)
Labour 20% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 39% (-)
Labour 20% (-)
Conservatives 19% (-2)
Greens 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 67 (+4), Labour 24 (-), Conservatives 22 (-9), Greens 11 (+5), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
SNP: 67 seats
All others: 62 seats
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 5 SEATS
Pro-independence parties: 78 seats (60.5%)
Anti-independence parties: 51 seats (39.5%)
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 27 SEATS
This offers some corroboration for the even more recent BMG poll, which also suggested that the SNP were doing a bit better than might have been expected. The Tories must be tearing their hair out, because they seemed to have moved decisively back into second place in recent weeks, but now there seems to be considerable doubt once again over who will be the largest opposition party.
As ever, the Greens’ showing in any Survation (or ComRes) poll should be taken with a hefty dose of salt due to the way the regional list question is asked.
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I have two constituency profiles in The National today for the forthcoming election – Shetland and North-East Fife. You can also read my national predictions for the five main parties, along with the predictions of Mark Diffley and Mark McGeoghegan, HERE.
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If you find Scot Goes Pop’s coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I’m currently running a fundraiser HERE.
