The last time I published an update of the Poll of Polls, I was startled to receive a series of mildly abusive messages from the Ghanaian Tourism Authority, dismissing any averaging of polls as “bull****”. I must say my past experience of Ghanaian government officials is that they’re not usually so psephologically illiterate, so it came as a complete bolt from the blue. However, I think I managed to reassure them that averaging polls is a long-established practice that generally offers a more accurate sense of the state of public opinion than any individual poll – which might turn out to be an outlier or a rogue poll.
Here’s the latest update now that three more polling firms have joined the fray…
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 50.8% (-0.8)
No 49.2% (+0.8)
(Based on an average of the most recent poll from each firm – one from YouGov, one from Panelbase, one from Savanta ComRes, one from Survation, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from Hanbury Strategy, one from BMG and one from Opinium.)
So a very slight decline for Yes since the last update in late February, but Yes are still in the lead, and there’s no obvious reason to assume that will cease to be the case, given that the last two individual polls have had a Yes majority.
Incidentally, the other thing that puzzled me about my exchange with the Ghanaian Tourism Authority is that they seemed to be excited by any poll that showed Yes down, and disappointed by any poll that showed Yes up. Given Ghana’s history as the first African country to free itself from British colonialism, I’d have expected them to be more favourable towards Scotland’s struggle for freedom. But maybe it’s just that the Tourism Authority has gone rogue.
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Many hysterical predictions were made about what Alex Salmond would say today, but in the end his statement was restrained, responsible and proportionate. He hasn’t gone after Nicola Sturgeon, he hasn’t quibbled about any of the findings from the inquiries that he might disagree with or be disappointed about. Instead he’s homed in on two specific points that it’s hard for any reasonable person to argue with – a) Leslie Evans should not still be in office, and b) the person who leaked to the Daily Record should be identified and held accountable for their actions.
I was waiting to hear if there was any mention of Mr Salmond’s plans for the election. The fact that there wasn’t probably makes it much less likely that he’s going to be standing – but he’s a past master of political theatre, so don’t rule anything out until the deadline passes. Even if he isn’t a candidate himself, he could conceivably wield some influence by making an endorsement – although personally I doubt whether that would be enough to make any small party a serious contender for seats. I think he would need to get actively involved himself to have a telling impact.
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I had an article in The National yesterday about the new BMG poll putting Yes on 52% – you can read it HERE.
