I did make exactly those points in 2016 and I was proved right. I said we couldn’t possibly know, as you were specifically claiming, that the SNP would win at least 65 constituency seats. They didn’t – they won 59, and because they didn’t have enough list votes, no majority.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 16, 2021
I’m hoping not to get caught in the same trap I fell into in 2011 and 2016 when I spent the last few weeks before polling day doing little else but countering disinformation about the voting system. To save time, and as they say on Blue Peter, here’s something I made earlier. Two videos, in fact. The first is a film I made with Phantom Power in 2016 which explains the Holyrood voting system in detail, sets out the theory that it can be ‘hacked’ by voting strategically on the list, and then explains why that theory is largely bogus. The second is a livestream debate I had on the subject with Tommy Sheridan, also in 2016. A number of people were kind enough to say at the time that I had either won the debate or that it was a score draw, which is quite something when you consider what a formidable debater Tommy is – although, to be fair, he may have been going easy on a fellow Yes supporter, and I think his main problem was that his basic argument wasn’t particularly convincing. Even the finest debater can only do so much with such thin material.
To anticipate the objection that is always raised at this point, no I have not contradicted myself by saying I would get behind an Alex Salmond-led list party, if one were to be formed. The point is that I wouldn’t be doing that to ‘game the system’ – I would simply be voting for my first choice party on the more important list vote, which is exactly the way the system is supposed to be used. That said, Alex Salmond is the one person who might actually be capable of successfully gaming the system. Why? Because, as stated in the videos, for a tactical push on the list to work, you’d effectively need a mind control ray – you’d need implausibly large numbers of people doing exactly what you want them to do by voting for the SNP on the constituency ballot and then switching to a Party X on the list. Alex Salmond would be able to produce that effect due to the trust and loyalty gained from his twenty years at the helm of the SNP – he’d be able to convince a substantial minority of SNP voters that ‘SNP constituency, Salmond party list’ is a natural extension of their usual partisan choice.
