You’ve probably seen by now that there’s a new Panelbase poll today suggesting that if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, there will be a majority of 53-47 in favour of independence. But you always have to be just a little bit careful with poll results on hypothetical questions, even when the hypothetical scenario is highly likely to come to pass. In this case, perhaps the biggest problem is that people might feel that the way the question is asked suggests that their response ‘ought’ to be different if Boris is leader.
So, as ever, what really matters is the result on the standard independence question. But, never fear, that result is sensational enough – Yes have practically drawn level.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)
To put this in perspective, over the last few years Panelbase have been (along with YouGov) one of the most No-friendly polling firms. For eighteen months between the early summer of 2017 and the autumn of 2018, every poll they published showed Yes on either 43% or 44% – a slighly lower level of support than recorded in the 2014 referendum. Over the last few months, Yes has been creeping up and up in Panelbase polls – and today’s 49% is the highest figure the firm has reported since the temporary surge in the aftermath of the EU referendum three years ago. In conjunction with the (relatively) recent YouGov poll that had Yes jumping to 49%, this leaves little room for doubt that Brexit is belatedly helping the independence campaign to gain some traction.
More details and analysis to follow…
