Thanks to Scottish Skier for drawing my attention to a little-noticed detail from last weekend’s full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase: there is now a majority in favour of an early independence referendum. On the rounded numbers, the split is 50% in favour, 50% against, but a close look at the unrounded numbers reveals the majority is just about there.
Total in favour of an early independence referendum: 50.2% (+0.7)
Total opposed to an early independence referendum: 49.8% (-0.7)
Of course those percentage changes are trivial and not statistically significant, but psychologically they’re very important, because the Tories have repeatedly told us that the evidence shows there is no public appetite for an independence referendum. Well, here is evidence showing the complete opposite.
To maintain consistency with a question they’ve been asking for years, Panelbase always split the pro-referendum position into two separate options, and support for the more radical option has also seen an increase since the last poll…
When do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held?
There should not be another Scottish independence referendum in the next few years: 49.8% (-0.7)
When the UK has finished negotiating to leave the EU: 27.9% (-2.2)
While the UK is negotiating to leave the EU: 22.3% (+2.9)
That wording is getting close to being past its sell-by date, because arguably the UK has already finished negotiating to leave the EU. So it could be said that 27.9% of the public think a second indyref should take place now, and 22.3% think it should already have taken place! It certainly seems to be the case that half of the electorate want a referendum in the very near future.
