A commenter on a previous thread has alerted me to a piece of polling analysis on Newsnet that is based on an entirely false premise. The article claims that Best For Britain are wrong to suggest that the figures from their recent YouGov poll would translate into three SNP seats in the European Parliament, and that the correct figure should be two. It also goes on to say: “Why Best for Britain have allocated 3 seats to the SNP when their poll results actually only give them just 2 is strange. Perhaps because of an unexplained adjustment or wider polling influence.”
In fact, the Newsnet piece is wrong and Best For Britain are right. The 38% of the vote that the SNP are given by the poll would comfortably be enough to win them three seats, and it would actually leave them not that far away from four. This is not because of any “unexplained adjustment” or “wider polling influence” – it’s simply because of how the D’Hondt formula works. The Newsnet author wrongly believes that D’Hondt divides a party’s vote by two every time it wins a seat, but that’s not the case at all. As Newsnet is a pro-indy website, this is clearly an honest mistake rather than anything malicious, but it’s still important to set the record straight because it could lead to further confusion about how the voting system works. (And Alex Cole-Hamilton would be only too delighted about that!)
The D’Hondt formula actually divides each party’s original vote by the number of seats it has already won, plus one. So this is how the calculation would play out if the Best For Britain poll happens to be accurate…
First count: SNP 38, Brexit Party 19.8, Greens 11, Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 7, UKIP 2, Change UK 2
SNP win first seat
Second count: Brexit Party 19.8, SNP 19 (38 ÷ 2), Greens 11, Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 7, UKIP 2, Change UK 2
Brexit Party win second seat
Third count: SNP 19 (38 ÷ 2), Greens 11, Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Brexit Party 9.9 (19.8 ÷ 2), Liberal Democrats 7, UKIP 2, Change UK 2
SNP win third seat
Fourth count: SNP 12.7 (38 ÷ 3), Greens 11, Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Brexit Party 9.9 (19.8 ÷ 2), Liberal Democrats 7, UKIP 2, Change UK 2
SNP win fourth seat
Fifth count: Greens 11, Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Brexit Party 9.9 (19.8 ÷ 2), SNP 9.5 (38 ÷ 4), Liberal Democrats 7, UKIP 2, Change UK 2
Greens win fifth seat
Sixth count: Labour 10.2, Conservatives 10, Brexit Party 9.9 (19.8 ÷ 2), SNP 9.5 (38 ÷ 4), Liberal Democrats 7, Greens 5.5 (11 ÷ 2), UKIP 2, Change UK 2
Labour win sixth seat
Final seat allocation: SNP 3, Brexit Party 1, Greens 1, Labour 1
