I’ve been out enjoying Bonfire Night, so I wasn’t watching Channel 4’s big Brexit show, and I’m trying to make sense of the Scottish figures from their Survation mega-poll, based on the limited information available on Twitter. Supposedly there are independence figures showing…
Yes 51.4%
No 48.6%
…but I have a sneaking suspicion that’ll turn out to be a non-standard question asking respondents to take Brexit into account. If so, that wouldn’t be out of line with similar polls we’ve seen in recent months, although I certainly wouldn’t diminish the significance of it in any way.
I’ve managed to track down the exact wording of another question in the poll…
From what you have seen and heard so far do you think that Brexit makes it more or less likely that you would vote to support an independent Scotland?
More likely: 38%
Less likely: 25%
Neither more nor less likely: 31%
Which bolsters the impression that Brexit has the potential to secure the small net swing that would be required to produce a Yes majority.
Proper analysis will be added here once I actually find the details of the poll…
