I said in the last post that if the opinion polls spook Tory MPs enough to install a fourth Prime Minister in a single parliament, the replacement would presumably be Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat or perhaps Kemi Badenoch. But at least according to the betting that’s wrong, with Tugendhat still rated as having less of a chance of being the next Tory leader than Nigel Farage – even though Farage is currently a member of another party and might even be about to become the leader of that party.
Next Conservative leader betting:
Kemi Badenoch 4.5
Penny Mordaunt 5.7
Suella Braverman 9.6
James Cleverly 10.5
Priti Patel 15
David Cameron 20
Nigel Farage 27
Boris Johnson 28
Tom Tugendhat 34
Remember this is the betting for the next Tory leader regardless of whether the vacancy occurs before or after the election, so for that reason it may make sense that Badenoch is clinging on to her position as favourite. The big advantage Mordaunt and Tugendhat would have in a pre-election contest is that Tory MPs would be in survival mode, and would be looking for the stop-gap leader who is most likely to connect with the public and limit the damage. But after the election, that advantage would disappear, and with years of opposition facing them, the Tories might well revert to ideological type.
As far as I know, the leadership rules remain unchanged, so it’s not hard to imagine Suella Braverman winning a post-election contest. If she could somehow sneak into the top two in the MPs’ ballot, she would probably storm to victory among the members on a populist pitch.
