I’m probably not alone in being thoroughly confused by the reporting of Survation polls these days, but today took the problem to a new extreme. I went to the Survation website to find out more about the poll for True North that is being widely reported, and sure enough the top headline was about a poll for True North…but it turned out it had been conducted in June. I started to wonder if the poll had been withheld for two months for some reason, but I think the mystery has been solved by John Curtice’s site, which lists a brand new Survation poll for True North conducted between the 15th and 18th of this month. That’s good news, because it means support for independence has actually increased since the last comparable poll.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation / True North, 15th – 18th August 2023)
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
A one-point swing is of course statistically insignificant, but for what it’s worth the direction of travel is in line with the recent YouGov poll which showed a much more significant three-point jump for Yes. George Foulkes seemed to reckon on Twitter earlier that the poll suggests “support for independence is fading fast”, which may mean he’s looking at the wrong poll, or possibly that he was indulging in liquid refreshment a tad too early in the day.
However, there’s the by now familiar divergence in the poll between independence numbers and party political voting intention numbers, which are not especially favourable for the SNP – although at least there’s no sign of things worsening much further for the time being.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 37% (-)
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-3)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 24 (-24), Labour 24 (+23), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:
SNP 39% (+1)
Labour 34% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 30% (-)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 15% (-3)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 49 (-15), Labour 42 (+20), Conservatives 17 (-14), Liberal Democrats 11 (+7), Greens 10 (+2)
Net personal ratings:
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -3
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -22
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -26
Those are horrible personal numbers for Yousaf, and contradict the suggestion in the YouGov poll that his unpopularity might be easing off slightly. To be twenty or so points behind Sarwar, and essentially level with Ross, is a desperate position to find himself in just five months after being installed as First Minister.
I remain of the view that the SNP have got to be brutally honest with themselves that the polling evidence suggests they are heading for defeat in next year’s Westminster election and also that Humza Yousaf’s unpopularity is a significant part of the problem. They could move on from a lot of their travails fairly quickly, certainly in time for the general election, if they simply face up to the leadership issue. But will they?
In the absence of the data tables (if they’re out there I haven’t found them yet) the only other point that can be made about the poll at this stage relates to the numbers on support or opposition to the SNP’s coalition with the Greens. There’s something in there for everyone – a plurality of the overall electorate oppose the coalition, while an overall majority of SNP voters support it, as do a plurality (but not a majority) of Yes voters from 2014. You can spin that pretty much any way you want to, although I would make the point that even if only a small minority of SNP voters are deserting them specifically because of the relationship with the Greens, that could be more than enough to do heavy damage in terms of seat losses.
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