Slightly to my astonishment, at about the seventh or eighth attempt I’ve finally managed to track down the data tables from the YouGov Scottish poll that I was becoming increasingly suspicious about, and it turns out that it’s a genuine YouGov poll. However, it’s in a part of the website that is insanely difficult to find – whether it was sitting there the whole time, or whether it’s been quietly added over the last couple of days, is not entirely clear.
As ever, the results that were reported in the media are not necessarily the most interesting or telling ones. It transpires that, albeit by the narrow margin of 45% to 42%, the public in Scotland think there should be an independence referendum within the next five years. That represents a slight one-point increase in support for a referendum since the last YouGov poll. And by the somewhat wider margin of 50% to 40%, voters think the Scottish Government should be able to hold a vote on independence without London’s permission.
There’s slight opposition to a total ban on new oil and gas development on “British” North Sea territory (ahem), and interestingly that’s a sentiment that cuts across the political divide. Yes voters and No voters are both opposed to the idea of a ban, as are voters for all parties apart from Labour (and presumably the Greens, although the Green figures are not provided).
There’s increasing evidence that the police investigation has had a severely negative effect on Nicola Sturgeon’s standing and reputation. By a margin of 50% to 32%, voters think she should be suspended from the SNP. That’s a sharp increase on the margin reported by the previous poll. Admittedly it’s driven mainly by anti-independence voters, but even 26% of SNP voters from 2019, and 30% of Yes voters from 2014, think she should be suspended. Her personal approval rating, meanwhile, now languishes at minus 16.
The approval ratings from the poll for both Humza Yousaf and Rishi Sunak have already been widely reported, but here they are in a fuller context –
Net approval ratings on the question of whether each person is doing well or badly at their job:
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