There’s an interview with Alex Salmond in the Telegraph in which he makes a fascinating observation that actually contradicts one of the key assumptions of many on the radical end of the independence movement. He suggests that Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation couldn’t have been pre-planned, because she was in the middle of a two-part strategy on independence (the Supreme Court referral followed by a de facto referendum) and he didn’t know of any other leader who would willingly relinquish office with half of a two-part strategy unfinished. That suggests she would have stayed in office if it hadn’t been for the police investigation, and would have seen the de facto referendum through, either in 2024 or 2026. I think that’s probably right, notwithstanding my paranoia immediately after the resignation that it had been choreographed months in advance as the only conceivable way of getting the SNP out of a promise on a de facto referendum that had been practically signed in blood.
The police investigation wasn’t self-initiated, of course, it only came about because of complaints from Yes supporters, presumably those who had seen questions about the SNP raised by Wings Over Scotland and one or two other websites. Now, I certainly don’t criticise anyone for lodging a complaint and setting this process in motion – they did absolutely the right thing if their primary concern was doubts over the SNP’s honesty and probity in its dealings with members. However, if anyone was motivated more by the Wings narrative that Nicola Sturgeon was the main blockage to independence, and saw a complaint mostly as a tactic to try to dislodge her, it’s not hard to see how that’s backfired. If she had remained in harness, we would probably have had the de facto referendum, and we would have had a chance of winning it with a popular SNP leader, and indeed with a popular SNP that had not yet been tarnished by the revelations of recent weeks. Instead, Nicola Sturgeon’s natural allies, who clearly thought she had taken leave of her senses by actually trying to deliver independence, saw her sudden departure as Christmas come early, and gratefully seized the unexpected opportunity to put a stop to the SNP as a party actively trying to win independence for the first time since at least 1942. And for good measure, they’ve unnecessarily lumbered the SNP with a new leader who the public dislike and regard as incompetent, and who is thus much less likely to win any vote on independence, even if it did happen.
In short, the independence cause is now in a much worse position due to the police investigation having been triggered. Of course we’re only in the foothills of this ongoing story, and Humza’s unpopularity and close association with the Sturgeon leadership puts him in a very vulnerable place. So something constructive may yet come out of this chaos which will wipe the slate clean with a new leadership and repair a lot of the damage. But so far, it’s a case of ‘be careful what you wish for’.
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There have been further signs over the last 48 hours that Labour’s big lead over the Tories at GB-wide level is shrinking significantly. With at least a year to go until the likely general election date, that brings a hung parliament back into play – perhaps the joker in the pack that could get the SNP off the hook, although no-one should be relying on it, because it remains only an outside chance. Labour’s lead in the new YouGov poll is fourteen points, which is the lowest YouGov have shown since mid-September, just before the Trussmageddon reached its peak. And Omnisis are showing the lead down to 17 points, the second-lowest in any Omnisis poll since September. On the other hand, Opinium have Labour rebounding slightly to an 18 point lead, but that’s probably just sampling variation at play.
GB-wide YouGov poll (26th-27th April 2023):
GB-wide Omnisis poll (27th-28th April 2023):
