Many thanks to a borderline-abusive troll on the previous thread, cowering as always behind anonymity, for belatedly pointing me in the direction of yet another poll with a very positive story to tell on independence. I overlooked it yesterday due to the simulcast of Gardening Live on multiple news channels.
Survation poll, 29th March – 3rd April 2023:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (+2)
No 53% (-2)
Unlike every other poll we’ve seen since Humza Yousaf was narrowly elected as SNP leader in highly controversial circumstances, there’s no decrease in the SNP vote (or no *further* decrease, I should say, because a decline had already happened in the final weeks of Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership). Indeed, there’s even a small increase – albeit a statistically insignificant one – in the SNP’s Holyrood support. However, it must be borne in mind that the fieldwork for the poll took place before the arrest of Peter Murrell and the raid on his and Ms Sturgeon’s shared home, so even if Survation’s numbers are more accurate than those of other firms (a big if), there’s a danger that the reprieve for the SNP may be only temporary.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 40% (-)
Labour 32% (-)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 1% (-)
Reform UK 1% (n/a)
Alba 1% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 42% (+1)
Labour 30% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 35% (+2)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Greens 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (-)
(Note: The percentage changes above are measured from the most recent published Survation numbers in March. Strangely, Survation’s own Twitter account is measuring the percentage changes from an earlier poll in February and is therefore showing a significant drop in the SNP’s vote. This may imply that they do not regard the March poll as being technically a “Survation poll” due to the involvement of the Diffley Partnership. Whether this is just a ‘branding’ difference or something more substantive isn’t clear. I cannot offer an explanation for the bizarre inconsistency of Alba apparently being offered as an option to respondents on the Westminster question but not on the Holyrood list question.)
Seats projections (with changes from most recent election):
UK Parliament: SNP 36 (-12), Labour 14 (+13), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1), Conservatives 4 (-2)
Scottish Parliament: SNP 59 (-5), Labour 31 (+9), Conservatives 23 (-8), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 6 (+2)
By the way, our anonymous troll informed me that I “must” have seen this poll because Professor John Robertson’s blog (which I have not read for several years) had covered it earlier today. Having now checked Robertson’s piece, this helpfully gives me the opportunity to point out that it is factually inaccurate. Robertson claims that the SNP lead over Labour has “surged to 12%”. As you can see for yourself from the numbers above, the SNP have remained eight points ahead of Labour on Westminster voting intentions and are twelve points clear on the Holyrood constituency ballot, but that lead is absolutely static from the twelve point lead in the previous poll. The only ballot on which the SNP lead has increased is the Holyrood list ballot, but the new lead there is ten points, not twelve. So whichever way you cut it, Robertson is wrong and there is no “surge to a 12% lead”. I appreciate he’s an out-and-out propagandist, but propaganda tends to be more effective when it stays just about within the bounds of truthfulness.
