The tables for the Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times were released today, and there are a few nuggets of interest. First of all, although the headline independence numbers from the poll are Yes 48%, No 52%, they were incredibly close to being rounded up to Yes 49%, No 51%. To one decimal place, the result is Yes 48.5%, No 51.5% – so I think we’re safe to assume there’s still a big appetite for independence out there, in spite of the SNP’s determination to implode over recent weeks.
Secondly, it turns out there’s one important group of people who are not going to be at all impressed by Humza Yousaf’s decision to abandon all attempts to win independence – and that’s SNP voters, without whom it wouldn’t even be possible for Yousaf to be First Minister. Respondents to the poll were asked to name up to three things that they thought should be priorities for the new SNP leader to focus on – and 54% of people who voted SNP at the 2019 general election named independence. That’s startlingly close to the number of SNP voters who chose the bread and butter issues of health (65%) and the economy (67%). You can imagine the effect on SNP support if the government was felt to be neglecting health and the economy, so it’s reasonable to expect a very similar effect if no attempts are made to deliver independence, which almost as many SNP voters regard as a very high priority. There’s no point in Humza and his loyal followers shrugging their shoulders in mystification at plunging SNP support – the shelving of the manifesto commitment to a vote on independence is clearly likely to be one of the key factors.
One plan Yousaf very much hasn’t shelved, though, is the intention to challenge the imperial veto of the GRR Bill in court. Ironically, SNP voters aren’t behind him on that. Only 39% of them want a legal challenge, whereas a combined total of 61% either want the GRR Bill abandoned completely, or for a compromise to be reached with the UK Government. As I’ve said before, I have no great problem with the legal challenge, because although the GRR Bill would have been a truly terrible piece of legislation, we should be able to resolve our own mistakes in line with the principle of self-government rather than relying on God-like interventions from a foreign capital. But the challenge still seems strategically odd to me, because unlike the long-running question mark over whether the Scottish Parliament had the power to pass a Referendum Bill without Westminster’s consent, which genuinely was the subject of heated dispute between different legal experts, there seems to be no real ambiguity over the fact that Westminster does have the legal power of veto in the circumstances it was used.
One obvious question is how the hardline trans rights activists react when the challenge is lost and it becomes literally impossible to deliver self-ID until Scotland becomes an independent country. Starmer has hurriedly switched sides, so there’s no longer any rescue coming from that direction. Will we then hear about how it’s “transphobic” and “far right” for Humza to insist on sustained supermajorities before holding a vote on independence? Or will we suddenly find out that previously unsuspected reserves of patience and caution are present when the only remaining route to self-ID is indy? It’ll be interesting to see.
