Let’s not mince words – this is an unmitigated disaster. The SNP have replaced a popular leader with a deeply unpopular leader. They have done so needlessly, because there was a popular alternative on offer. And given that Yousaf has won so narrowly, there’s going to be little doubt that the only reason he prevailed is because the process was so tightly ‘managed’ by the Sturgeon faction, with favours being called in left, right and centre. Rightly or wrongly, there will probably even be allegations of outright ballot rigging. He will command very little authority. The Sturgeon team have let their party and their country down appallingly badly by not allowing this process to run its course naturally, which would clearly have resulted in a win for Forbes and a brighter future for our cause.
I suppose questions also have to be asked of those of us who defected to Alba in 2021, because the current Alba membership is (I think) just about big enough that it could have swung the balance for Forbes if we were all still SNP members – although I suspect if Alba didn’t exist a lot of those people would now belong to no party at all, so perhaps it wouldn’t have made any difference.
For the second time in six months, I have to say I find myself at a political crossroads, and I’m sure others feel the same. There is no way forward while Humza is SNP leader. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded – independence has no chance of happening until he is deposed, whether that be in six months or ten years. However, I don’t want to fall into the Stuart Campbell trap of talking down the SNP and talking down independence on this blog on a daily basis in the hope of hastening Yousaf’s removal, because that could make matters worse. There has to be something left of the SNP for Yousaf’s successor to inherit. The least worst outcome would be for Yousaf to see the writing on the wall from opinion poll results and then resign to prevent an election defeat, rather than in reaction to an election defeat, but knowing what we know about the stubbornness of the man and those who surround him, that seems unlikely. He could very easily take us all down with him.
From a personal point of view, how do I contribute in this impossible situation? I can’t in all good conscience cheerlead for an SNP that I now realise needs to fail to at least some extent before it can succeed by being shocked into ditching Yousaf. But neither can I in good conscience do a Campbell by spending every waking moment trying to turn a heavy SNP defeat in 2024 into a self-fulfilling prophecy, because that could kill off independence forever. So perhaps I need to step away from the blog, or turn the blog’s focus completely away from polling and election analysis.
I know some will redouble their efforts to build up the Alba Party as a genuinely pro-independence alternative to the devolutionist SNP, but as you know I feel really strongly that Alba needs to become more mainstream and ditch some of the anger and the wilder impulses if it’s ever to become electorally successful. I would be quite happy to fight for change within Alba for however long that takes – but, to be perfectly candid, I recently put myself forward for Alba internal elections and was never even informed of the results, even though I sent a follow-up email to try to find out. That genuinely astonished me given how we’ve been rightly castigating the SNP for a lack of transparency and due process in their own internal elections. I don’t mind banging my head against a brick wall in Alba for years to come as long as the process is open and fair, but if that’s not the case…? Are we a democratic party or are we, like the SNP under Sturgeon and Yousaf, a ‘managed’ party? Where is the home for the scunnered middle now? Is there one?
I have a great deal to mull over, as I’m sure every true independence supporter in the land does. I’ll get back to you if and when I reach any conclusions, although in the meantime there’ll be the loose ends of some remaining opinion poll results.
