Late last night, I was accosted on Twitter by a couple of diehard Humza Yousaf supporters – one of them was being abusive, although in fairness the other was not. Both of them were still trying to push the fantastical line of argument that it “huztae be Humza” because supposedly neither of the other candidates for leader has the numbers to be installed as First Minister by the Scottish Parliament. This is a very, very silly myth that just refuses to die. So let’s work through step-by-step why the next leader of the SNP will undoubtedly become First Minister, no matter who that person is.
1) The SNP have 64 of the 128 voting members of the Scottish Parliament – exactly half. That excludes the non-voting Presiding Officer, and compares to just 47 seats for the SNP when Alex Salmond was first elected as First Minister fifteen years ago.
2) The new SNP leader, no matter whether that person is Humza Yousaf, Ash Regan or Kate Forbes, will be able to count on the support of all, or almost all, of those 64 SNP MSPs in the election for First Minister. The reason is that elections for First Minister in mid-term are tantamount to votes of confidence in the government, and thus any SNP MSP who votes against their leader, or who fails to vote without a valid excuse, will undoubtedly lose the party whip and will not be eligible to stand for the party in future elections. They would effectively be throwing their careers away, and if there’s one thing we know about parliamentarians who have endorsed Humza Yousaf, it’s that they really, really value their careers.
3) At the margins it’s not impossible that one or two particularly zealous MSPs might make a career-ending stand by opposing their new leader in the vote. (Emma Roddick was speculated about as a possibility, although she has since given an “SNP till I die” oath of loyalty.) But that wouldn’t make any difference, because under the rules an absolute majority of MSPs is not required to be elected First Minister. In 2007, Alex Salmond was elected with just 49 votes (47 SNP, 2 Green) – which was only 38% of the voting MSPs. On the final ballot, by which point Jack McConnell was the only remaining opponent for Salmond who hadn’t yet been eliminated, 46 votes (36%) went to McConnell and the remainder abstained. The abstentions were disregarded, and Salmond was declared the winner because his 49 votes slightly outcounted the 46 for the only other remaining candidate. It will therefore be extremely easy for the new SNP leader to get elected with 62 or 63 votes. The only way that would not be the case is if every single other party, plus any SNP rebel, actively votes for Douglas Ross to become First Minister. Anyone who thinks Labour, let alone the Scottish Green Party, is about to install a Tory-led government is living in Narnia.
There endeth the lesson, there explodeth the myth.
Related
