Is Alba on course for a list seat in the north-east?

That probably would be enough for an Alba list seat – I can only say ‘probably’ because you’d need to know the constituency results before you can make the d’Hondt calculation.  However, the problem is that the sample size in the north-east was just 150 respondents, and it seems unlikely that the numbers were correctly weighted to the regional population.  (YouGov are unusual in that they do appear to correctly weight their Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls, but I’m not aware of any suggestion that they do the same for Scottish regional subsamples.)  Therefore, you can’t expect pinpoint accuracy or anything like it, which is demonstrated by the fact that Alba are on the implausible figure of zero in both Mid-Scotland & Fife and West Scotland.  The chances are that Alba support is being understated in those two regions, but overstated in the north-east.

The best guide to whether Alba have a realistic chance of nicking a list seat in the north-east or anywhere else remains the national vote share, which can be considered much more reliable.  In this poll Alba are on 2% nationally, exactly the same as at the 2021 Holyrood election, when they didn’t really come close to winning a seat.  If they could double that and get to 4% nationally, they’d be in the zone where only a slight overperformance in one or two regions could claim them a seat.  As things stand, though, it’s likely they’d still be falling short.

However, forgetting about unreliable regional subsamples, there is a much better argument for thinking Alba might be making a little progress in the north-east, and that’s the Dyce by-election result from a few weeks back.  They took a creditable 4% of the vote, significantly better than they managed in by-elections in the central belt towards the end of last year, and finished ahead of the Greens.  OK, one swallow does not make a summer, and even 4% across the north-east region would not be quite enough for a list seat.  But it is the first real sign that when Alba run a well-organised campaign, they have a message that is capable of resonating enough to make them competitive with at least one of what are generally considered to be the “big five” parties.

A final point: in the press release in which Alba make the claim about the north-east seat, they also say the YouGov / Sky News poll shows the Yes vote on 45% and the No vote on 55%.  That’s not true – the real figures are Yes 46%, No 54%, which in spite of the hysterical way the mainstream media reported the poll actually represents no change at all from the previous YouGov poll, thus suggesting the Yes vote is holding up well during this difficult period.  As I’ve said before, I very much hope Alba don’t start following the Wings practice of effectively talking up and embellishing the poorest polls for Yes, and falling silent out of disappointment whenever a good poll for Yes is released.  

I’m on record as saying a Humza Yousaf win would be checkmate for independence, at least until he’s deposed.  But even if Yousaf does win, it would still be a mistake for any pro-independence party to be continually talking down independence.  In that scenario, the SNP will inevitably learn the hard way that they’ve made a terrible blunder, and there’ll be no value in other independence supporters actively contributing to that process by effectively campaigning like unionists.  Our job will be to keep the flame of independence alive – just about – for however long it takes for the SNP to emerge from the blind alley they’ve wandered down.

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