Hot on the heels of last night’s remarkable seventh Scot Goes Pop opinion poll (and I haven’t even finished giving you the results of that one yet), I have an eighth for you. Don’t expect this sequence of events to make any logical sense, because it doesn’t make sense, but it’s happening anyway. I commissioned Panelbase to conduct this new poll, and the question I’m releasing today relates to the general public’s preferences for First Minister – and by this stage they appear to collectively have an extremely strong preference.
Regardless of which party or parties you intend to vote for in future elections, which of the three candidates do you think would be the best First Minister of Scotland? (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase, 7th-10th March 2023)
Kate Forbes: 33% (+10)
Humza Yousaf: 18% (+3)
Ash Regan: 10% (+3)
Don’t Know: 36% (-4)
(The sample size is 1013, and the percentage changes listed above are from the previous Panelbase poll conducted between 21st and 24th February – but please note that poll used a different question and contained an ‘other’ option.)
So what’s happening here is fairly straightforward – all of the candidates have picked up support since late February, due to the elimination of the ‘other’ option and a reduction in the number of Don’t Knows as the public become more and more exposed to the candidates and their pitches. But Kate Forbes has taken by far the lion’s share of these new converts, allowing her to dramatically increase what was already a significant lead. If the remaining Don’t Knows are stripped out, this is how the state of play looks –
Kate Forbes: 53% (+5)
Humza Yousaf: 30% (-)
Ash Regan: 17% (+3)
Tantalisingly, you’ll notice that Panelbase’s fieldwork started on Tuesday, and it was on Tuesday night that the landmark STV debate took place. One of the million dollar questions of this campaign is whether Kate Forbes’ bold strategy in that debate will have paid off or backfired – and having checked with Panelbase, I can tell you that almost all of the responses to this poll came in AFTER the debate took place. Even by Wednesday morning, only 28 of the 1000+ respondents had been interviewed. So at least as far as the general public is concerned, it appears Forbes’ robust approach in debating Humza Yousaf has paid very handsome dividends.
Also of great interest are the views of SNP voters, who of course make up almost half the sample. Kate Forbes’ lead among that group is smaller – but she is in the lead.
Respondents who voted SNP in the 2019 UK general election:
Kate Forbes: 41%
Humza Yousaf: 40%
Ash Regan: 18%
Respondents who voted SNP in 2021 Holyrood constituency ballot:
Kate Forbes: 42%
Humza Yousaf: 38%
Ash Regan: 20%
Forbes is also ahead among people who voted Yes in 2014…
Respondents who voted Yes in 2014 independence referendum:
Kate Forbes: 42%
Humza Yousaf: 37%
Ash Regan: 21%
Incidentally, she also has a mammoth 69% to 19% lead over Yousaf among No voters from 2014, which is arguably even more important, because those are the people we need to win over.
Forbes has a substantial lead over Yousaf among Remain voters from 2016 (47% to 36%), and interestingly a gargantuan lead among Leave voters (77% to 11%).
And there’s no surprise at all in the different age brackets – Yousaf has a small advantage among under-35s, but Forbes is ahead among the two older age groups, and is way ahead among over-55s (63% to 19%). It should never be forgotten that, in general, the older you are, the more likely you are to turn out and vote.
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This is the second Scot Goes Pop poll in as many days – an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead. However, as you’ll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options…
The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
If you wish, you can add a note saying “for the fundraiser”, although even if you don’t do that, it’ll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.
If you don’t have a Paypal account, last year’s fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.
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