Ahead of this evening’s Channel 4 debate, the broadcaster has published the results of a new Ipsos poll it has commissioned for the occasion. Just like every other previous poll across all firms, it shows the public have a clear preference for Kate Forbes as the next First Minister.
Public preferences for next First Minister (Ipsos UK / Channel 4 News, 6th-7th March 2023):
Kate Forbes: 32%
Humza Yousaf: 24%
Ash Regan: 8%
Net approval ratings:
Kate Forbes: +8
Humza Yousaf: -7
Ash Regan: -12
Amazingly, that’s the first time in any poll I’ve seen that Yousaf hasn’t been in third place on net approval ratings, but that’s not much consolation for him because he’s still a long way adrift of Forbes. The Labour leader Anas Sarwar has an approval rating of +5 in this poll, so the SNP really are at a crossroads – they can choose a leader who is slightly more popular than the man who is in effect the main opposition leader, or they can choose someone who is significantly less popular than Sarwar and thus put themselves at severe risk of losing the 2026 Holyrood election.
The main health warning to put on these numbers is that the poll’s fieldwork took place before the STV debate, which was dramatic enough that it may have shifted the dial in one direction or the other.
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m slightly dreading the debate tonight, because on past form Krishnan Guru-Murthy will regard himself as the most important participant, so we’ll just have to see what agenda he’s decided to push this time.
