To their credit, Savanta have already released the data tables from the first poll of SNP members in the leadership contest, and I’ve been having a look at them. On the raw weighted numbers, there are 139 respondents for Humza Yousaf, 114 for Kate Forbes, and 50 for Ash Regan. If, hypothetically, the Don’t Knows end up being distributed between the candidates in the same way as those who have already reached a view, it would mean Forbes will win if Ash Regan’s second preferences break just over 3-1 in her favour, which is a less daunting task than the headline percentages led us to believe earlier. 76% of Regan’s second preferences in this poll would give Forbes 152 respondents, leaving Humza Yousaf with just 151. That hinges, of course, on Regan’s supporters all using their second preferences, and one of the biggest priorities for Forbes will be ensuring that as many as possible of them do.
Data tables from the poll of SNP members show that Kate Forbes has a big lead among older SNP members – and she would need just *76%* of Ash Regan’s second preferences to become the next First Minister
Bear in mind that every poll has a margin of error, and in this case it’ll be a bit larger than normal because there were only 500 respondents. If Yousaf’s first preference lead is being overestimated, the road to victory for Forbes on the second count could be extremely straightforward and easy. If it’s being underestimated, Forbes’ chances may be a fair bit slimmer.
The tables confirm some of the previously untested assumptions of this campaign, because it turns out there’s an absolutely enormous disparity between the different age groups. The reason Forbes is in with a real shout is precisely because, as speculated in The National a few days ago, older SNP members are backing her and they happen to represent the bulk of the membership. Among 55-64 year old members, Forbes has a 15 percentage point lead over Yousaf (after Don’t Knows are excluded), and among over-65s, she has a 10-point advantage. So the accuracy of this poll will depend on whether Savanta have got the target weightings for each age group correct. They look in the right ball-park to me, but the reality is that I’m not sure accurate information about the SNP’s current membership is even publicly available.
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