SCOT GOES POP – ON THE SPOT. I have now – genuinely – arrived just OUTSIDE the venue for tonight’s SNP leadership hustings, so I can live tweet ALL THE DRAMA. Unmissable thread to follow.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
I can exclusively reveal that A LONG QUEUE HAS FORMED.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
FOOTBALL PRACTICE is taking place nearby.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
A relatively large numbers of cars are PARKED.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
There is distant BIRDSONG.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
Here are the live scenes of drama just outside the hustings venue. Note the media van with a SATELLITE DISH ON TOP. pic.twitter.com/pttwaTqHei
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
It’s all KICKING OFF here.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
SCOT GOES POP – as always, ON THE SPOT. (As long as it’s within convenient walking distance of my home in the ‘Nauld, naturally.)
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
As I’m still on the OUTSIDE and I don’t have a ticket or media accreditation, the live tweet DRAMA will now diminish in intensity, but here is a selfie in front of the car park and the football practice. The queue was to the left of this, but they’ve all gone in now. pic.twitter.com/gQiddB1wB3
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 1, 2023
It took me a while to walk back and I therefore only saw the latter part of the hustings, but from what I’ve read it looks like we may now have a bit more clarity on Kate Forbes’ thoughts on what I will call, for want of a more accurate expression, “her way forward to independence”. Apparently she said something about putting independence front and centre of the Westminster election campaign and that there should be a demand for a referendum within three months of an SNP victory, in order to put pressure on the UK Government. For the avoidance of doubt, that would be a massive and humiliating step back from the current policy of a de facto referendum. It would idiotically convert the Supreme Court ruling into a real defeat that gives the UK Government an indefinite veto over any exercise of Scottish democratic self-determination (until such time, of course, that an SNP leader re-adopts the current policy, which may be inevitable in the long run). I would like someone to ask Kate Forbes how she will ensure a legal vote on Scottish independence takes place even if the UK Government keeps saying no. In other words, where is the Plan B that was rendered essential by risking the Plan A with the Supreme Court referral? There’s no point pretending that it’s an unanswerable question or an unsolvable problem, because the de facto referendum plan solves it. If Kate Forbes is going to ditch that plan, what is her alternative method for holding a vote without Westminster’s agreement? Does she have one?
The snag is, of course, that Humza Yousaf most certainly doesn’t have an alternative to offer either, and from him the mood music is several million times worse. At least Kate Forbes is offering some optimism and urgency. Although she has no credible plan, at least she’s putting a tight timescale on her non-credible plan, if you see what I mean. She’s talking about her newborn daughter growing up in an independent Scotland, which is more promising than (for example) a hope that she’ll go through university under independence. Whereas if Humza was talking about his child, he’d probably speak of his dream that they might collect their pension from an independent Scotland – but only with a lot of hard work, of course, and sustained supermajority conditions apply. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
Unfortunately, this does look like being essentially a Forbes v Yousaf contest, which means that whatever happens, the independence cause is now almost guaranteed to suffer a setback. But with Ms Forbes it would be a significantly lesser setback, and in situations like this you just have to do your best to ensure that the least worst outcome occurs. It’s also vital that as many people as possible give Ash Regan their first preference vote (with Ms Forbes getting their second preferences), because if the ultimate catastrophe of a Yousaf win is averted, it’s possible that a strong third place for Ms Regan might just embolden Ms Forbes to be a little more radical on independence strategy.
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