Yet more disastrous poll numbers for Humza Yousaf, this time from YouGov. Somehow, some way, the SNP have got to avoid chucking themselves headlong into the Humza Hole.

A new full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov appeared last night, and it cleared up some outstanding questions from the previous one (more on that later), but of most interest to us at the moment is that it has personal ratings for the SNP leadership candidates. For the first time in any poll that I’m aware of, Ash Regan is included.

Net personal ratings:

Kate Forbes: +3

Ash Regan: -4

Humza Yousaf: -19

So a very familiar pattern with Kate Forbes in the lead and Humza Yousaf in a distant and dismal last place. In fairness, Ms Forbes’ rating is arguably almost meaningless because all or almost all of the fieldwork for the poll took place before the media suddenly became obsessed with her thoughts on gay marriage and extramarital sex. However, even if Ms Forbes’ fortunes in the polls are about to change, we can safely assume that Mr Yousaf’s fortunes will not. The public seem to have reached a clear and settled view on him and it is not a favourable one. To avoid a high risk of defeat in the 2026 Holyrood election, the SNP somehow have to coalesce around a leader who is not Mr Yousaf – whether that happens as a result of Kate Forbes reviving her campaign by throwing out some red meat on independence strategy, or by Ash Regan storming the TV debates and becoming a credible challenger, or by a completely new candidate entering the fray.

Meanwhile, support for independence seems to be holding up.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46%

No 54%

That represents no change at all on the previous YouGov poll for the Scottish Election Study, although YouGov have explained that poll differed from the usual methodology and thus isn’t directly comparable with the new one. But even since the last directly comparable YouGov poll, there has only been a statistically insignificant one-point drop in Yes support.

The use of a different methodology also appears to be part of the explanation for the weird finding in the Scottish Election Study poll that the SNP only had a two or three point lead over Labour in Westminster voting intentions. The new poll shows, reassuringly, that something closer to normal service has been resumed.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 38%

Labour 29%

Conservatives 19%

Liberal Democrats 6%

Greens 4%
Reform UK 2%

I must admit I burst out laughing when I heard Stewart McDonald doesn’t want independence until 2050. I’m past the point of despair now, it’s just sheer comedy. Yes, another three decades should give Stew the chance to “steel the mandate to an unprecedented level”.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 22, 2023

Fun game for the evening: work out what age you will personally be in 2050, Stewart McDonald’s new target date for independence. Will radical life extension technologies be required for YOU to see indy?

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 22, 2023

Oh gosh. I have defended The National to the hilt over many years but this does not look like a paper that is being neutral in a crucial leadership election. I hope they don’t turn too obviously on Ash Regan as well, or they could lose a lot of trust.https://t.co/q00zu1Simt

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 21, 2023

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