I’m a little surprised by Angus Robertson’s decision not to stand for the leadership, but I’m not totally astounded, and that’s for two reasons. Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon’s representatives on Earth like Mhairi Hunter have been very noticeably coming out for Humza Yousaf rather than Mr Robertson. Although there was always a chance Ms Hunter had suddenly developed some independent opinions of her own, that didn’t seem very likely somehow. And secondly, Stuart Campbell made a cryptic comment a few days ago about how he didn’t think Mr Robertson would stand, and that analysis didn’t sound to me like the product of deep personal reflection – I think it had come direct from a voice down the blower. In fact I may even be able to hazard an educated guess as to who that voice belonged to.
We’re now left with a fascinating race. Initially it looked like we were going to see an unbalanced contest between an already strong frontrunner candidate who would also have the additional advantage of the full support of the current Sturgeon/Murrell-backed hierarchy, and the leading outsider candidate, who might or might not have been Kate Forbes. Now it’s the outsider candidate who will be the clear frontrunner, and although there will still be a hierarchy-backed candidate in the shape of Mr Yousaf, he will need to use that advantage to overcome what looks like a clear deficit from the start. That’s a very different proposition and we’ll now have to see whether any dirty tricks the current leadership can throw at Ms Forbes will be sufficient to close the gap. Frankly, if the Sturgeonite rearguard action succeeds, it’s going to be just as bad for the SNP’s electoral chances as it will be for the cause of independence, because the polls are unanimous in showing that Mr Yousaf would be a very unpopular First Minister.
Plus there’s also the wildcard of Ash Regan, whose stated programme has deservedly guaranteed her the support of practically all truly committed independence supporters. However we have to be realistic and remember that the SNP membership has proved itself in recent years to be a strangely conservative group of people who quite often seek out the comfort blanket of the least radical option.
At this stage my money would be strongly on Kate Forbes, although much will depend on how resilient she’ll prove as she takes an inevitable hammering from the usual suspects over her religious views in the coming weeks.
And whatever Mr Robertson’s reasons for not standing, I think we should salute him for doing the movement a tremendous favour. Although my main concern about him was that I doubted he had a credible strategy for winning independence, a victory for him would also have further intensified the toxic division in the movement between Salmond and Sturgeon supporters. There is now an opportunity to move forward with a leader who can transcend that split – as long as Mr Yousaf is unsuccessful, of course.
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