Hopefully the great many people who spread defeatist propaganda about the Lord Ashcroft poll have learned a very important lesson today, because three new polls later the position for the independence campaign looks much healthier than even I would have predicted. You just cannot write off decades of progress towards independence on the basis of a single poll, no matter how bad it seems to be (and in truth the Ashcroft numbers were nowhere near as catastrophic as they were being portrayed), because it might be an extreme outlier, it might be a rogue poll, it might just be picking up a very fleeting dip. And it now seems that any or all of the above may have been exactly what was going on.
Here is the first poll to be published with fieldwork carried out after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation –
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta / The Scotsman, 15th-17th February 2023)
Yes 49% (-)
No 51% (-)
Given the absolute pummelling the independence cause and the SNP have been taking in the media, especially the London-based media, these are frankly wonderful numbers. Let’s take a step back and remind ourselves of what it all means – if there was an independence referendum right now, this poll is suggesting Yes might well win, because it shows a statistical tie. Due to the standard margin of error, either side could be ahead.
It’s even possible the Yes campaign may now enjoy an extended post-resignation honeymoon, if that isn’t a contradiction in terms, because people always see the outgoing leader through rose-tinted glasses, and the SNP will now enjoy unprecedented attention as the beauty pageant of potential leadership candidates gets underway in earnest. And then even after the election is over, the new leader can probably expect a honeymoon of sorts for at least a few weeks (unexpected events permitting).
There are also voting intention numbers in the Savanta poll, which offer considerable reassurance that YouGov may have been wrong in suggesting Labour were on the brink of overtaking the SNP on the Westminster ballot.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 42% (-1)
Labour 32% (+2)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 43% (-)
Labour 30% (+2)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 32% (-)
Labour 27% (+3)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
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