I spotted on Twitter that Bella Caledonia was trying to discredit Kate Forbes by pointing out who was talking her up – ie. Fraser Nelson, Alex Salmond and Chris Deerin. But I’d suggest it’s equally instructive to look at who’s trying to sabotage her – it’s been a long time since we last saw a Bella/Wings axis. Stuart Campbell broke cover yesterday by revealing his agenda for the forthcoming days – he wants to undermine Ms Forbes at every turn and discredit her with silly jibes about “not working on the Sabbath” because he sees her as a threat to his own chosen one, Ash Regan. For the second time in a week, the message to Campbell should be “careful what you wish for”, because I’d suggest the fundamental truth of this leadership election is that Ms Forbes is the only gender critical candidate (or potential candidate) who can win. Indeed, if she stands, the early indications are that she probably would win. So whether he realises it or not, by trying to deter Ms Forbes from standing or to minimise her vote if she does stand, all Campbell is doing is helping to clear a path for Angus Robertson and the continuity-Sturgeon (at least on the gender issue) faction.
I suspect Ash Regan understands perfectly well that she can’t win, because she knows that she’s nailed her colours firmly to the mast and identified herself completely with a position that only a minority of the membership agree with. The point of her standing would not be to attempt to win, but instead to lay down a marker by grabbing a substantial vote and thus demonstrating that gender critical feminism represents a significant minority within the SNP rank-and-file who are no longer going to put up with being ignored or vilified.
Thus, by going all in for Ms Regan and suggesting that no-one else will do as leader, Campbell is – not for the first time in his life – setting himself a near-impossible task. It’s like he does this deliberately, so that when he falls light-years short of his objective yet again, he can go off in a huff, scream at the rest of the world for being raving lunatics because they didn’t heed his sage counsel, and quickly revert to his comfort zone of trying to burn the whole Yes house down.
A considerably more constructive approach would be to recognise that 70% of what you want is not at all bad, and a hell of a lot better than 0%. Yes, Kate Forbes kept her head down during the later stages of the GRR Bill and used maternity leave as an excuse for abstaining even though she could have voted remotely, but here’s the thing: that decision is a big part of the reason why she’s still in contention at this stage. It was actually quite a shrewd thing for her to do, not only in terms of any personal ambitions she harbours, but also from the point of view of furthering her own ideals in the longer term.
Campbell wants her out of the race because she supposedly might “split” the gender critical vote, which he thinks should be uniting behind Ms Regan. That’s sheer electoral illiteracy, because this contest will be conducted by preferential voting, not first-past-the-post. If both Ms Regan and Ms Forbes stand, gender critical SNP members can get the best of both worlds by giving Ms Regan their first preference and Ms Forbes their second preference – thus ensuring that Ms Regan lays down her marker and that Ms Forbes, rather than Angus Robertson, becomes First Minister. Whereas without Ms Forbes in the race, Ms Regan would still only get a minority vote and Mr Robertson would be almost assured of becoming First Minister (as long as he stands). How on earth is that a better outcome?
Just to reiterate, I still have no idea whether I’ll end up wanting Ms Forbes to win. I feel that it is absolutely essential that the independence movement finds a leader who has BOTH of the following attributes: a) the type of indefinable ‘X factor’ that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon possessed, and b) a credible strategy for winning independence at a brisk pace. I am reasonably convinced Ms Forbes has attribute a), but I have no information whatsoever on whether she also has b), and nobody I’ve spoken to seems to have much idea either.
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