So as you’ve probably seen, my plea of yesterday went unheeded (how unusual!) and the special SNP conference has been unceremoniously postponed. The jaws of many, many independence supporters are going to be dropping to the floor right now. If this proves to be the early part of an elongated choreography that eventually ends with the solemn promise of a de facto referendum being retracted, it’s going to lead to a perception that there is no promise that the SNP hierarchy make to the Yes movement that can ever be relied upon. No matter how much they bind themselves in, no matter how much they appear to sign the promise in blood, there are simply no lengths they will not go to (or so it appears) in order to come up with an inventive excuse for U-turning. On one reading of yesterday’s events, they’ll even sacrifice their own leader to come up with an excuse if they can’t find a plausible enough one anywhere else.
This decision is also utterly irreconcilable with the words of Nicola Sturgeon only yesterday, when she claimed that one of the main benefits of her resignation was that conference delegates would not feel honourbound by loyalty to rubberstamp her own preferred option, and could instead make a free choice on the timing of a de facto referendum. Well, that advantage is straight back out of the window only 36 hours later, because by the time the conference takes place (if it ever does) there’ll be a new leader and the decision of delegates will be strongly influenced by their loyalty to whoever that person is.
However, we are where we are, which means the priority for now is the leadership election rather than the conference. My advice to SNP members is to use any and every contact you have with the leadership candidates or their campaign teams to stress that you intend to vote for whichever candidate is strongest and most specific on holding a de facto referendum by X date (and obviously you’ll have your own thoughts on exactly when X date should be). Remember that, particularly in a close contest, candidates will be looking for any sort of extra edge over their opponents, and if they hear from enough members that a crystal-clear commitment to a de facto referendum will bring them a crucial bundle of additional votes, you may well find that the promise is forthcoming, even if it wasn’t originally planned. It might also be an idea to ask for specificity on what tactics (such as disruption tactics at Westminster) will be used to press home any mandate won at a plebiscite election.
Over the next few weeks, you as SNP members will have truly unprecedented leverage to bring independence closer than ever before – so please use it. You may regret it for the rest of your lives if you don’t.
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