I have a lot of concerns about what might emerge from the SNP’s special conference, which we learned today will be held on 19th March. I’m worried about the vague language being used by senior SNP people to characterise the purpose of the event, which leaves open the possibility of it being used as part of the choreography for yet another climbdown. I’m troubled by the way in which comments made in recent months by the likes of Angus Robertson, Toni Giugliano and Mhairi Hunter are not even consistent with a plan for a de facto referendum, thus making the whole concept sound like a ruse.
However, I can’t see the point of screaming blue murder about a betrayal that hasn’t actually happened yet, and that may never happen. The conference itself will be the moment of truth. If whatever is decided ticks the boxes of a genuine plebiscite election, all of us need to get off the fence and get full-bloodedly behind the endeavour – and that includes the Alba Party, because we’ll never forgive ourselves if we self-sabotage a golden opportunity to win our country’s independence. If, on the other hand, there’s another climbdown, we’ll have no choice but to start looking ahead to doing independence the hard, slow way by challenging the SNP in 2026 and beyond. Make no mistake, that would be very much the second-best outcome, but we’d have nowhere else to go.
So what should be our red lines for the March conference? I know many people will be prioritising the replacement of a Westminster plebiscite election in 2024 with a snap Holyrood plebiscite election in 2023. I agree that would be overwhelmingly sensible, but it’s not absolutely essential. The true bottom line is that the plebiscite election must happen, it must genuinely be a plebiscite election and not a con-trick, and it must happen within the timescale we’ve been led to expect. So in more concrete terms…
* The de facto referendum, regardless of whether it’s Westminster or Holyrood, must take place by the end of 2024. There must be no delay until 2026 – which would be a whole decade after we learned Scotland was to be dragged out of the EU against its will.
* It must be absolutely crystal-clear that the mandate being sought in the election is for independence itself, not for an independence referendum.
* It must be crystal-clear that if a mandate for independence is secured, the UK government will be expected to negotiate an independence settlement without any need for a further referendum.
* There must be no repeat of the mistake of using language like “once in a generation” – in other words, we mustn’t bind our own hands by saying there could be no repeat of a plebiscite election for a long period if we don’t win on this attempt. That’s not to say that we’d necessarily use every single scheduled election in the future as a plebiscite, but we must absolutely reserve the right to use whichever election we may deem appropriate. The whole beauty of switching back to using elections as the means of seeking independence is that no British Prime Minister can say at the end of a five-year term “now is not the time for an election”, and it would thus be very stupid of us not to leave our options wide open.
