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Beware the Herald’s reporting of a “new” independence poll – the fieldwork is actually several weeks out of date (although it still shows a small Yes lead)

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Beware the Herald’s reporting of a “new” independence poll – the fieldwork is actually several weeks out of date (although it still shows a small Yes lead)

by qwertyfan
December 14, 2022
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A Scot Goes Pop reader has alerted me to the fact that the Herald is reporting a “new” YouGov poll on independence.  I’ll give you the results for the sake of completeness, but the crucial point here is that the fieldwork took place weeks ago, between the 22nd and 25th of November, which means it predates the run of four polls since the Supreme Court ruling showing a clear pro-independence majority.  The Herald’s report says that the fieldwork “took in” the moment of the Supreme Court ruling on the 23rd, which is true, but it must always be remembered that most respondents to online polls reply to the interview request as soon as they receive it.  So the bulk of this poll is likely to have been carried out on the 22nd, before anyone knew that the Supreme Court was going to rule that Scotland is a prisoner in a non-voluntary union.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov / Scottish Election Survey, 22nd-25th November 2022)

Yes 50.2%
No 49.8%
It’s extremely unusual in this day and age for polls to be rounded to one decimal place, but I’m just giving you the results exactly as the Herald have published them.  They even give percentage changes rounded to one decimal place from the previous poll for the Scottish Election Study, showing a 2.6% boost for Yes since August.
Obviously rounded to whole numbers this is a 50/50 result, but before Don’t Knows are excluded, Yes have a slim lead of 43% to 42%.  So it’s in the eye of the beholder whether this is a Yes-majority poll or not.   If you take the view that it is, it means we now have six polls in a row, with fieldwork stretching all the way back to mid-October, showing a pro-independence majority.
The emphasis the Herald are placing on supposedly poor voting intention results from the poll for the SNP really is a complete red herring, given we have a much more up-to-date poll from YouGov that is more favourable to the SNP.

People keep telling me that Stuart Campbell is some sort of “independence supporter”, but I have absolutely no idea how him setting this story in train was supposed to help the indy cause. As opposed to, y’know, the total reverse.https://t.co/xVaPLMc805

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 14, 2022

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