No, there is no poll showing a big drop in the SNP&#8217;s Westminster vote &#8211; ignore the tweet suggesting there is

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 34% (-11)
LAB: 31% (+13)
CON: 19% (-6)
REFORM: 11% (+10)
GREEN: 4% (+3)
LDM: 1% (-9)

Seat estimate:

LAB: 29 (+23)
SNP: 23 (-25)
CON: 7 (+1)
LDM: 0 (-4) pic.twitter.com/n57eKOVjzZ

— Politics UK 🇬🇧 (@POLITlCSUK) December 5, 2022

For the love of God, a seats projection based on a subsample of 121 people? Seriously? It’s totally irresponsible misleading people like this.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 5, 2022

I was almost taken in by this, because there’s no disclaimer in the tweet that the numbers are from a subsample, nor is the name of the polling firm mentioned – but the addition of a seats projection makes it all look very credible and portentous. Apart, that is, from the totally implausible Reform UK figure of 11%, which is what gave the game away.

What’s particularly absurd about this stunt is that the subsample turns out to be from Redfield & Wilton, who have only just conducted a full-scale Scottish poll showing the SNP on 41% and Labour on 31%. So it’s not as if we have to rely on straws in the wind from subsamples to guess what a current Redfield & Wilton seats projection would look like. If you pump the numbers from the full-scale poll into the Electoral Calculus projection model, this is what you end up with for seats:

SNP 39 (-9), Labour 12 (+11), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1), Conservatives 3 (-3)

Incidentally, although 11% is implausible for Reform UK in a Scottish context, there has recently been a GB-wide poll from YouGov that had them as high as 9%. I remain slightly baffled as to why they’re polling as strongly as they are, because I wouldn’t have thought their profile has been high enough since they changed their name from the Brexit Party. But then, I don’t read the Daily Mail and I hardly ever watch GB News, so God knows what’s going on under the radar.

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No, there is no poll showing a big drop in the SNP’s Westminster vote – ignore the tweet suggesting there is

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