The good news for Rishi Sunak is that there’s been one poll since he became Prime Minister showing the Tories making significant headway on Labour. It was an Opinium poll and it was published on Saturday evening.
GB-wide voting intentions for next general election (Opinium, 26th-28th October 2022):
Labour 44% (-6)
Conservatives 28% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Greens 5% (-1)
SNP 4% (+1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 44%, Labour 25%, Conservatives 17%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 4%
The bad news for Rishi Sunak is that it sticks out like a sore thumb as an outlier. Every other poll since he became leader – including two with more recent fieldwork than Opinium’s – have Labour in a range between 49% and 55%. Opinium also have a higher Tory vote than any other pollster, although on that score the gulf isn’t so huge – both Survation and Redfield & Wilton are reporting a Tory share of 27%. But on the other hand, PeoplePolling (admittedly a wholly untested firm) have the Tories as low as 20%.
One thing that intrigues me is the respectable vote share Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) are getting in most polls these days. Opinium don’t seem to offer them as an option, but they’ve been as high as 6% or 7% with other firms over the last week. I thought they’d made a terrible strategic mistake by adopting a bland and non-specific name in place of their former successful branding – OK, having “Brexit” in the name might have ended up seeming anachronistic but that’s the case for many established party names. (How long has it been since the Labour party truly represented organised labour?) However, somehow or other it seems that many poll respondents are still very familiar with Reform UK. Would they really get 6% or 7% in a general election, though? Ah hae ma doots. And if they didn’t, where would those votes go? I think we know, and that might offer some very limited grounds for Sunak to feel optimistic.
