I wouldn’t normally pay as much attention as this to the betting markets, because they tend to be less reliable (or “efficient” or whatever the jargon is) on political matters than on sport. But in the absence of post-Trussmageddon polling of Tory members, they may be the best guide on offer at the moment.
Rishi Sunak 1.62
Boris Johnson 3.05
Penny Mordaunt 18.5
That implies a mind-boggling 33% chance of Boris returning as Prime Minister after only a few weeks, with a 62% chance for Rishi Sunak. What’s happened is that commentators have walked back their original assessment that Mordaunt was the only person with a realistic chance of joining Sunak on 100 nominations. Now it appears that she has no chance of doing that, and that Johnson does – although opinions still differ sharply on how likely he is to reach the threshold.
Another reason for suspecting that Johnson’s chances are possibly being overestimated is that he has a track record of backing out from a previous leadership contest (in 2016) when he started to fear that defeat was likely. Above all else he wants to feel loved, and may remove himself from any situation in which that feeling could be taken from him.
Nevertheless, there are good reasons for thinking he could emerge as the winner if he gets enough nominations and faces off against Sunak in a members’ ballot. A YouGov poll of Tory members, conducted just before Truss resigned, found the following –
Boris Johnson 32%
Rishi Sunak 23%
Ben Wallace 10%
Penny Mordaunt 9%
Kemi Badenoch 8%
Jeremy Hunt 7%
That’s not such a massive lead that it can’t be overhauled, but there’s only a week to go, and not much time for reflection, let alone sober reflection – the Tory party is in a feverish state at present.
And the impact on the Scottish independence campaign? It’s tempting to imagine that a Johnson victory would restore us to the status quo ante of a year or two ago – ie. the ideal situation of a Tory leader being popular in England but incredibly unpopular in Scotland, thus giving us the opportunity to say to the Scottish public that independence is the only possible escape route from Tory rule. But however popular Johnson remains among Tory members, his credibility has gone with swing voters in England. I suspect Sunak is the only person with any chance of turning this around for the Tories – it may not even be possible for him to do it, but at least he has the unique advantage of being able to say he stood against Truss and predicted exactly what would happen if she won.
My main misgiving about Sunak from a pro-indy strategic point of view is that he might help the Scottish Tories salvage some or all of their current seats. I’ve been so looking forward to the mini-blue-wall in the south of Scotland being torn down, and to the look on Alister Jack’s face when he’s sent packing by voters and replaced with a pro-independence MP.
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