So Liz Truss thinks that there ‘should not be’ another Scottish independence referendum even if the UK Supreme Court rules later this month that it is indeed within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament to hold one without her consent in the form of a section 30 order.
Once again we got the ‘Once in a Generation’ Mantra as though the entire referendum hinged upon it and it was a binding legal commitment and not a campaign slogan. Now it’s “we said” once in a generation? That’s new. I don’t remember that clause from the Edinburgh agreement. There was no agreement either written or spoken that the 2014 referendum was a once in a generation event. Truss can be as clear as she likes but others will be even clearer in their determination to have the referendum they have voted for.
It’s strange however that the likes of Truss don’t place the same weight on the utterances of the Better Together camp. How about the assertion that Scotland was an equal partner in a family of nations? We don’t hear the Scottish media challenge Truss and the Tories on that when they intone that “we were told the referendum was once in a generation?” Or more pertinently what about the Vow that if Scotland voted No no Westminster government would ever interfere with the devolution settlement without the express permission of the Scottish Parliament. Unlike the once in a generation slogan that was actually written into law, only for Theresa May to go to the UK Supreme Court to obtain a ruling that it had no force in law.
Truss’s so-called Brexit Opportunities Bill gives her government the legal right to intervene directly in devolved areas, over-ruling the Scottish Parliament. It goes without saying that the Conservatives have not sought a democratic mandate from the people of Scotland for any of this. So why is it that the losing side in the 2014 referendum is to be held in all perpetuity to some of its campaign slogans but the winning side gets a free pass on the commitments it made in order to secure its victory, commitments which were enshrined in legislation only to be ripped up later when they were no longer convenient? Answers on a postcard to BBC Scotland because it sure as hell doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to put the question to the Better Together parties.
But really, who cares what Liz Truss thinks? We know she doesn’t want another referendum because she doesn’t want to add ‘breaking up the union’ to the list of disasters – at least from her perspective – that characterise her likely to be short term in office. If the Supreme Court rules in the Scottish Government’s favour there will be a referendum whether she wants one or not, her permission will not be required and there will be a referendum without her permission. If the Supreme Court rules against the Scottish Government then the next UK General Election will become a de facto referendum whether she wants it to or not, and again, her permission will not be required and there will still be a vote on independence no matter what robotic soundbites she comes out with.
All Truss could do would be to pass some legislation to block, or more likely gerrymander, a referendum. However any such move would be fraught with political difficulty and would run the very serious risk of backfiring, as it would show the Scottish public that an unpopular Conservative government was attempting to stymie the operation of democracy in Scotland. First the Tories insisted that an ‘illegal’ referendum needed to be opposed, now Truss is insisting that a legal referendum also needs to be opposed. You can smell the fear.
Note however that she could not do the same with a UK General Election which is a de facto referendum in Scotland and should Truss attempt to prevent Scottish democracy from taking its course after the UK Supreme Court had ruled it was lawful she would run the risk of the Scottish Government refusing to hold a gerrymandered referendum which was unfairly stacked against a Yes victory and then having to contest a de facto referendum in which opponents of independence would be placed in the impossible position of having to defend a UK which resorted to nakedly undemocratic means in order to prevent the people of Scotland from voting to decide their future for themselves.
However the way things are going for Truss she could well be out on her ear before Christmas, so her opinions on another Scottish referendum would become even less relevant. She has been in power for less than a month, during half of which there was no government business because of the royal mournathon, and she has already managed to provoke a a significant part of the Conservative parliamentary party into plotting to bring her down. In her all too brief tenure in office she has managed to tank the pound, drive the pension funds to the verge of collapse, cause mortgage and rent costs to soar, and to give Labour a commanding lead in opinion polls which the Tories are unlikely to overturn.
Truss has already got most Tory MPs against her, a majority of them supported Sunak. There is also a significant contingent of former ministers who loathe her and who would cheerfully bring her down if they could. She had precious little goodwill on the Conservative benches to begin with and she has rapidly burned through that with the unforced errors of Kwarteng’s mini-budget. Her many critics on the Conservative benches are unlikely to give her the benefit of any doubt in future. Any more errors or negative public reactions that cost the Conservatives points in the polls and they will ruthlessly move against her.
It’s not Scotland which is in a weak position here, it’s Truss. Her bullying comments are the braggadocio of a weak politician who is compensating for her weakness with an attempt at assertiveness. No one is convinced, certainly not by a politician who has insisted that she will not U-turn and who then performed eight U-turns during the Conservative leadership contest followed by another U-turn on her flagship policy within days of taking office.
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