Thanks to Anon on the previous thread for pointing me in the direction of the general election seats projection from a new MRP survey conducted by ComRes for LabourList. MRP projects have been in vogue in recent years, partly because YouGov’s MRP projection for the 2017 general election proved to be much more accurate than their conventional polling. (Embarrassingly, they had gone out of their way to make clear on the eve of polling that they thought their conventional polling was right and the MRP was wrong.) However, it’s probably fair to say that all MRP surveys are still experimental.
The Scottish projections from this new ComRes survey are certainly eye-catching, although I’m not sure how credible they are – the patterns seem a bit too dramatic and also far too ‘neat’. Alarm bells also rang in my head when I saw that Electoral Calculus had played a role in devising the projection model, because the projections on the Electoral Calculus website (although useful) often seem a little one-dimensional and crude. I suspect what’s happening is that assumptions that might work to some extent in English constituencies have been inflexibly applied to Scottish constituencies, producing a misleading outcome. But, for what it’s worth, here’s what the survey suggests would happen in a new general election, which of course we expect to be a plebiscite election in which an outright mandate will be sought for Scottish independence.
In the six Scottish constituencies currently held by the Conservatives, there would be a total Tory wipeout and the SNP would gain all six.
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