The anti-independence propaganda outfit Scotland in Union have helpfully warned us to be on the lookout for an opinion poll tomorrow. I will now proceed to make a series of predictions about this poll.
1) This poll will be a Survation poll commissioned by Scotland in Union themselves.
2) In common with their previous Survation polls, it will not ask about independence, but will instead pose the question ‘Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom?’, without making clear whether we’d be ‘leaving’ to become part of another state, to become a crown dependency like Jersey, to become a freely associated state like the Cook Islands, or to become an independent country. The question also deliberately sows confusion because the word ‘leave’ is associated with Brexit, and because ‘leaving the United Kingdom’ can be misinterpreted as abolishing the monarchy.
3) As always in these polls, the ‘Leave’ vote will be markedly lower than the Yes vote in genuine independence polls.
4) Scotland in Union will, as ever, put out a press release misrepresenting the poll as an independence poll, and falsely claiming that it shows a drop in the “Yes vote”.
5) The mainstream media will, as ever, disgrace themselves by “reporting the poll” with articles that are nothing more than very lightly rewritten versions of the Scotland in Union press release, with a reaction from Keith Brown tacked on at the end for appearances’ sake.
Judge how astoundingly accurate (or otherwise) my predictions turn out to be tomorrow!
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