One thing that stood out as particularly brazen in the first couple of leaders’ debates was Anas Sarwar’s claims that he, unlike Douglas Ross, can speak for both anti-independence and pro-independence voters. If anything, it was actually Sarwar’s predecessor Richard Leonard, and Keir Starmer’s predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, who brought Labour a bit closer to being able to straddle the Yes/No divide by suggesting that they wouldn’t necessarily stand in the way of an independence referendum if people voted for one (yet again). But Sarwar has now reversed that process, returning Labour to being just as much of an ultra-unionist party as the Tories. And yet he apparently thinks he can speak for both Yes voters and No voters simply by telling Yes voters that they don’t really care about the thing they’re in favour of.
I decided to use the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll to discover whether that bit of cheek was actually convincing anyone.
The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar says that, unlike the Conservatives, his party speaks for both anti-independence and pro-independence voters. However, Labour remains firmly opposed to independence and to an independence referendum. Which of the following statements is closest to your own view?
Labour would have to offer a compromise on an independence referendum before it can claim to speak for pro-independence voters: 44%
Labour can claim to speak for pro-independence voters without having to offer a compromise on an independence referendum: 26%
With Don’t Knows excluded, it’s a 62-38 split. But that’s among the whole sample – given the nature of the question, what really matters is the verdict of Yes voters. Do they think Anas Sarwar has any right to claim to speak for them without meeting them halfway in terms of substantive policy? Unsurprisingly, the answer is no. 65% of people who voted Yes in 2014 reject the idea that an unreconstructed unionist party can represent them, and only 15% do not. If undecideds are removed, that means 81% of Yes voters are saying “not in my name, Anas”.
One thing that’s irrelevant but nevertheless kind of fascinating is how supporters of other unionist parties break on this question. Tories naturally see no reason why an ultra-unionist politician shouldn’t speak for independence supporters, but Liberal Democrats are split down the middle.
What occurs to me is that Sarwar may actually be further alienating Yes voters with his presumptuousness in claiming to speak on their behalf. If he’s really determined to be a hardline unionist, he might be better off just owning that.
Another party presenting the public with a glaring piece of hypocrisy in this election are the Liberal Democrats – they say they’re not a party of rejoining the EU, and they’re viscerally opposed to Scotland rejoining the EU as an independent country…and yet they’d still like us to believe that they’re more passionately pro-European than any other party. How does that work?
The Liberal Democrats are opposed to Scotland seeking to rejoin the European Union by becoming an independent country, and are not campaigning for the UK as a whole to rejoin the EU. In view of this, do you think the Liberal Democrats can still be considered a “pro-European party”?
Yes 24%
No 51%
I’d say that’s a very clear answer to a very fair question. With Don’t Knows excluded, a 68-32 majority say that the pro-European claim no longer stacks up. In principle, that should be a major problem for the Lib Dems, because they’re known to have campaigned on the doorsteps in recent years with the simple slogan “we’re pro-UK, pro-EU”. They’ve now lost that USP, and voters who are serious about getting back into Europe will have to look to the SNP, Alba or the Greens instead.
Among people who actually voted Lib Dem in 2019, a mere 42% believe the claim that the party is still pro-European. 27% do not, and 30% are unsure. And interestingly, slightly more English-born respondents than Scottish-born respondents feel that the Lib Dems aren’t pro-European – in spite of the fact that English-born people tend to be less sympathetic to the concept of independence, which was explicitly mentioned in the question.
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There are lots more questions to come from this poll – Westminster voting intention numbers, independence voting intention numbers, and several more supplementary questions that should be of considerable interest to the whole independence movement. If you’d like to be the first to know when they’re released, feel free to follow me on Twitter
HERE.
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