Thanks to Marcia for pointing me in the direction of the new Ashcroft poll, which reinforces the impression from the recent Survation poll that the traditional dip in Yes support caused by election campaigns (ie. because the SNP usually campaign on bread and butter issues rather than making the case for independence) is very slight on this occasion, and that public opinion is still essentially 50/50.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49%
No 51%
I’ve had a very quick skim through the report on the poll, and there doesn’t appear to be conventional Holyrood voting intention numbers. However, there are questions that ask respondents for their percentage likelihood of voting for each party, and 4% of people say they are at least 70% likely to vote Alba on the list.
Patrick Harvie’s name is misspelt as ‘Harvey’, which makes me wonder how well-grounded in Scottish politics Lord Ashcroft (or whoever wrote the report) really is.
Meanwhile, Newsnet Scotland has published a very silly article about the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll. I’m not sure whether it’s worth the bother of rebutting it, given that most people are intelligent enough to spot that Newsnet under its new ownership has become a propaganda site and that any claims of fact it makes have to be treated with enormous suspicion. But just in case anyone mistakes the article for a credible piece of polling analysis, I’ll just explain that the point it’s overlooking is that the seats projection from any poll has to take into account constituency results as well as list results. That’s why Alba are doing better in the seats projection than in the previous Panelbase poll, in spite of the fact that the list vote percentages have barely changed. The SNP are projected to have fewer constituency seats now, which means unionist parties don’t have to be compensated with quite as many list seats. That leaves more list seats available for smaller parties, and Alba benefit.
That’s the point I was making the other week – Alba are running a self-sacrificing campaign by urging an SNP vote in the constituencies. That will maximise pro-indy representation but it may cost Alba themselves the odd seat here and there.
